Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight knockout artists Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev will rematch this weekend (Sat., March 8, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC 313.

Coming off the monumental UFC 300 knockout loss to Max Holloway, it’s easy to forget that “The Highlight” was riding high into that contest. He had earned a title shot the instant his high kick landed on Dustin Poirier, but the timing didn’t immediately work out, and staying active backfired. At 36 years of age, Gaethje is still in pursuit of that final opportunity for gold, the long-desired showdown versus Islam Makhachev.

Meanwhile, Fiziev has been on the sidelines since September 2023 after his knee exploded in the cage. He’s been ready to return for a while though, and he was quick to jump on this short-notice rematch as soon as news of Dan Hooker’s broken hand released. It’s a gamble for the Muay Thai ace, who either loses three straight or jumps into immediate title contention.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Gaethje vs. Fiziev Betting Odds

• Justin Gaethje victory: +136
• Justin Gaethje via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Justin Gaethje via submission: TBD
• Justin Gaethje via decision: TBD
• Rafael Fiziev victory: -162
• Rafael Fiziev via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Rafael Fiziev via submission: TBD
• Rafael Fiziev via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Gaethje Wins

Justin Gaethje is a savage. Regardless of whether he’s mauling his way forward or working more of an outside game, he commits himself fully to every exchange and never stops trying to take his opponent’s head off.

Pressuring Fiziev — an excellent kicker — is generally a good idea. Fiziev’s style of fighting is extremely taxing, and explosive kicks are even harder to fire from the back foot. Given the short-notice nature of the booking, attacking that gas tank with pressure and his usual volume is likely to pay off.

The other big key here for Gaethje is to work his jab. In the first bout, he spent ten minutes scrapping without sticking the jab. As soon as he started firing his jab, he took over completely and bloodied up Fiziev! Surely fatigue and wear played a factor as well, but throughout his career, Gaethje’s jab has been an underutilized weapon that is nasty when it does show up.

Why wait?

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How Fiziev Wins

Fiziev has a long background in Muay Thai and has even coached striking at Tiger Muay Thai. He has very fast, powerful kicks and explosive punching combinations. He tends to control range really well, managing the distance to the point that a slight pull allows him to fire back.

Hopefully, Fiziev has been paying attention to Justin Gaethje’s previous defeats, because the book is definitely written on what works against “The Highlight.” That’s not to say it’s easy, but we know Gaethje can struggle in the face of active feints, an active jab, and effective body work.

In the first fight, Fiziev kicked the mid-section rather well, and he should go back to that well here. However, he could stand to do more body punching too. Jabbing up-and-down the body is a good option, but using the threat of his kicks to set up the left hook to the liver would be classic Muay Thai as well.

Gaethje relies extensively on his high guard. If his mid-section is pummeled, that guard will lower and his punches will be less thudding, allowing Fiziev to find his own hooks and overhands.

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Gaethje vs. Fiziev Prediction

I don’t believe either man has changed dramatically since the first fight. It’s possible, of course, that the Max Holloway KO or ACL injury have ruined Gaethje or Fiziev athletically. We haven’t seen them fight since then, however, so there’s really no way to know.

Assuming both of them are still close to their 2023 standard … why wouldn’t their bout play out similarly? Gaethje finished strong with momentum in his corner back then, having made the better adjustments to take over late in the fight. He should be able to continue that flow, and the short-notice aspect of the match up only favors him as well.

Fiziev is definitely capable of a big knockout, but I don’t see a reason on paper why he should fare better under worse circumstances.

Prediction: Gaethje via decision

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