Oleksandr Usyk and Anthony Joshua. | Photo by Khalid Alhaj/MB Media/Getty Images
We’ve got a heavyweight title fight on Saturday.
The rematch for Saturday is all set!
WBO, WBA, and IBF heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk (19-0, 13 KOs) and former champ Anthony Joshua (24-2, 22 KOs) stepped onto the scale on Friday in Saudi Arabia ahead of tomorrow’s matchup. It’s boxing so there is no limit at heavyweight, thus the only intrigue was their respective weights compared to the first fight. Usyk came in at 221.5 lbs, only a few ounces heavier than last year’s showdown in London, whereas Joshua was 244.5 lbs, which is 4.5 lbs more than the first bout.
You can watch the weigh-in and the staredown at the top of the page.
Usyk vs. Joshua airs live on DAZN worldwide (except the United Kingdom and Ukraine) with a main card start time of 12 PM ET/9 AM PT. The main event ring walks should occur around 5 PM ET/2 PM PT, and with the reduced bout order at UFC 278, this fight shouldn’t clash with the early portions of the UFC 278 prelims.
Gilbert Burns is the No. 4-ranked welterweight in the world. | Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Gilbert Burns is hoping to fight Jorge Masvidal at UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Gilbert Burns finally has an opponent for his next fight after ‘Durinho’ revealed in a recent interview with MMA Junkie that he and Jorge Masvidal have ‘verbally agreed’ to fight.
Burns is looking to bounce back from a grueling unanimous decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 273 that saw both fighters pick up a $ 50,000 Fight of the Night bonus after entertaining fans in a wild back-and-forth fight at Jacksonville’s VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena this past April.
Burns doesn’t have a date for his next fight, but the Brazilian hopes to fight Masvidal at UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The PPV, scheduled to take place in January, will mark the UFC’s first trip to Brazil in over two years, as the premiere fight promotion hasn’t hosted an event in Brazil since March 2020, pre-pandemic.
“Nothing done yet – a lot of talks about the fight with Masvidal – he verbally agreed. I did too,” Burns said. “They’re just figuring out the date. No date yet. November was too close, … so December or January. At least I know I have an opponent. Just figuring out the date right now.”
“No. 1 would be MSG in November, but then he said no for that date,” Burns said. “Now December or January, I can wait like 20 more days to go to Brazil. I’m looking forward to go to the Brazil card.”
Masvidal, the UFC BMF champ, is desperately looking for a win after losing his last three fights to Kamaru Usman (twice) and Colby Covington. ‘Gamebred’ is currently #9 in the UFC welterweight rankings, whereas Burns is #4.
Kamaru Usman after beating Jorge Masvidal at UFC 261. | Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for UFC 278.
The Bloody Elbow team has made its predictions for UFC 278, and most of us (but not all!) are going with Kamaru Usman to defend his welterweight title against Leon Edwards. As for the co-main event, Victor Rodriguez is on his own as far as picking Luke Rockhold over Paulo Costa. Opinion also leans towards Jose Aldo to get the W over Merab Dvalishvili.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Zane Simon entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
Anton Tabuena: Usman has been so great lately, and with him having significantly improved boxing and using his wrestling more in reverse these days, I don’t think the guy to beat him is a grappler or brawler hoping for one big shot. Usman doesn’t really dive for takedowns and employ a wrestling-heavy approach anymore — arguably due to injuries? — so to dethrone the dominant champion, I believe it has to be a guy who can really pick him apart on the feet where it’ll stay for the most part, and also be able to defend in the clinch and the occasional takedown. Is that Edwards? It’s still very tough to say, as Usman’s boxing and pace in the late rounds might give him issues, but I believe this is a far more interesting match up than any of his other title defenses. Can Edwards outpoint him from outside by showcasing his more dynamic kickboxing? It’s really hard to pick against Usman, but I think Edwards has the best chance out of all the welterweights right now. F—k it, I’m going with the upset. Leon Edwards by split decision.
Mookie Alexander: Leon Edwards is a very good fighter, but by not being a dynamic athlete, a serious finishing threat, or someone who can work a pace that forces Usman into some sloppy defense and punches I don’t see his path to victory. Edwards’ wrestling is underrated but Kamaru is a truly gifted wrestler with a punishing top game. Edwards might be the more technical striker than Usman and particularly at range, but he’s not very powerful and he’s also a lot more hurtable than Usman has ever shown. There’s also been a concerning habit of Edwards to struggle late in fights — Round 3 against Gunnar Nelson, Round 5 against Nate Diaz — that just isn’t going to fly against the champion. We’ve seen this matchup before and I don’t have much to see since then to dissuade him from picking Usman again. Kamaru Usman by decision.
Zane Simon: I’m not sure whether or not this fight will truly kick off and become something thrilling to watch, or just if it will stay at a low simmer the whole time, with both men testing and prodding for gaps in their opponent’s armor without opening themselves up to anything big in return. Either way, though, I’m not very confident of Edwards’ path to victory. Edwards has made his title run on the back of a crafty, sniping range striking game, heavy clinch strikes, and a shockingly rock solid takedown and counter-wrestling game to change things up. When he’s fighting at his best, he’s landing hard from outside, shifting into the clinch for a couple big knees or elbows, and then hitting a takedown to keep his opponent from getting any momentum. Because of his interest in takedowns, and because he often only throws one or two strikes at a time, his output is low and he rarely gets knockouts, even when he’s got a solid skill advantage. Against Usman, he’s meeting someone that will almost certainly not concede an inch in the wrestling game, and will use the clinch to push Edwards around and control him. At which point, Edwards’ best path lies through range striking, where he’s not a big KO threat and throws way, way less offense. If I assume Usman sees the final bell, then I gotta assume he’ll be busier all the way there. Kamaru Usman by decision.
Anton Tabuena: Rockhold has to fight the perfect game here, land some shots on the outside and find a way to get him down to the mat. His highly underrated top game will surely lead to a finish from there, but can he even get a takedown before Costa can tough him up? Maybe, but the smart pick is still Costa since he really won’t need much to end this contest. Paulo Costa by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: This fight is dependent on how dumb Costa wants to fight and whether or not he will willingly engage in what Rockhold does best. Most likely Rockhold just crumbles once he gets hit really hard. That chin is cooked and Costa will catch him at some point. Paulo Costa by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Unless they got a new Luke Rockhold, this fight seems tailor made for Paulo Costa to go out and do something violent. Paulo Costa by KO, round 1.
Anton Tabuena: Why is Dillashaw getting a title shot off a highly disputed decision, a USADA suspension, and a KO loss, while Aldo is on a really impressive three fight winning streak? Someone please explain to me why a legend like Aldo needs four straight wins over younger killers before he gets his shot? Anyway, Dvalishvili is good, but I think if Father Time hasn’t caught up with Aldo and there’s no big drop off from his recent fights, this match up favors him. He’s the better striker, and this has been a style he typically feasts on. Hopefully he just gets the much deserved title shot after. Jose Aldo by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: I’d give real thought to picking Dvalishvili over five rounds. Over three rounds I favor Aldo. I’m not really seeing too much of a drop in Aldo’s takedown defense at 135 compared to 145. He has seldom been controlled outside of when he was exhausted as hell fighting a grueling stand-up battle with Petr Yan. Dvalishvili is not exceptional at maintaining top position and unless he really just relentlessly spams the wrestling to great effect, Aldo is going to tag him. Merab’s a better striker than I think he’s given credit for but he still is ripe for a classic Aldo counter or two, and I can see him having some serious problems early when Jose is at his sharpest. Jose Aldo by decision.
Zane Simon: There’s a lot to like for both men going into this fight. For Aldo, the fact that Dvalishvili still doesn’t have much of a range game, but has been feeling himself more and more as a puncher lately is a huge opportunity. If Dvalishvili is going to try and feel out most of a round against Aldo, on the feet, entering the pocket with power hooks and uppercuts, Aldo has all the tools to make his reads and counter every bit as hard as Marlon Moraes did. On the flip side, Aldo’s takedown defense and wrestling in general seems to be missing a beat since his drop down to 135. And more concerning, when Aldo does get taken down, it often seems like the results are pretty draining for him. If Dvalishvili force Aldo to scramble right out of the gate, that feels a lot like a fight where he can just motor non-stop for 3 rounds and win. I’ll take that as the more likely outcome, but I expect we’ll know a lot more about how this fight is gonna go after the first minute or so. Merab Dvalishvili by decision.
Mookie Alexander: This is now on the main card for some reason. Why? Wu Lucie Pudilova by decision.
Zane Simon: Given that Pudilova doesn’t fight with the same unchecked aggression that she used to, and that Wu Yanan can’t help but have a brawl, there’s a good chance this fight gets a lot closer than it should. But, Pudilova has been adding some power and some craft to her game, and that should be enough to see her through a scrappy reintroduction to the UFC. Lucie Pudilova by decision.
Mookie Alexander: Pedro looked alright after not fighting for four years, whereas Hunsucker… isn’t good and gets stopped quickly at heavyweight. What’s he going to do at 205? Tyson Pedro by KO, round 1.
Zane Simon: The only thing that feels less likely to succeed than a longtime light heavyweight moving up to heavyweight is a longtime heavyweight moving down to light heavyweight. Guys at 205 are too fast, too dynamic, and hit too damn hard. Tyson Pedro via KO, round 1.
Mookie Alexander: Tybura can often be a terrible starter and he’s managed to fight his way through that and get some comeback wins. If he starts slowly against Romanov he will not recover. Alexandr Romanov by hulk smash, round 2.
Zane Simon: More often than not, the first and only question that needs asking for a Marcin Tybura fight is ‘Can Marcin Tybura out-wrestle this dude?’ If the answer is no, then he’s probably not going to win. And it’s hard to think of a more obvious and clear cut bad matchup than someone like Alexander Romanov. Alexander Romanov by TKO round 2.
Mookie Alexander: Santos is 95 years old and he probably can’t keep a pace with Gordon. Jared Gordon by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Two or three years ago, I’d be picking Leo Santos here every day and twice on Sundays. His combination of snappy range power striking and lethal counter wrestling submissions seems like it’d be perfect to chew up a guy who has to have the pocket to get his kind of fight, like Gordon. Even still, I won’t be at all surprised if round 1 is absolutely brutal for ‘Flash’, after all he’s already been KO’d twice in round 1 by Brazilian grapplers with a surprising willingness to throw hands. But, at this point it seems time has fully reduced Santos to a one-round gas-tank fighter. At that point, I just can’t bank solely on him getting a quick KO. Jared Gordon via TKO, round 3.
Zane Simon: Two high volume featherweights. One who likes to kick a lot and one who likes to punch a lot. Could make for a really entertaining scrap. More than Saldana, however, Woodson seems to really love a fast-paced constantly trading battle of wills, and his technique holds up a lot better in those kinds of conditions. If Woodson can turn up the heat on Saldana, I think he’ll find a whole lot of openings to land clean punches. Sean Woodson via decision.
Zane Simon: This should be a slobberknocker. Both dudes are bricked up, both throw heavy shots, both have great chins, and neither man is blessed with a huge amount of striking defense. For Fletcher, he’s working on a pretty crafty wrestling & sub game to supplement his hands, but for as long as he’s at welterweight he’ll always be dealing with a significant reach disadvantage among his peers. Loosa, on the other hand, is taking the long slow road of a Hooft disciple, learning lots of good fundamentals, but with a game that still isn’t quite snapped into place. Expect Fletcher to start fast, but if he can’t get the finish, it could be Loosa pouring on all the offense in the third round. I’ll take Ange Loosa by decision.
Zane Simon: Even coming off that super slick kneebar, it’s hard to know just how Figueiredo is going to show up each time he hits the Octagon. He doesn’t have his brother’s brutal combination of strength and speed, and without those factors, his slow paced punching game is a lot chancier at 125. On the flip side, Albazi loves to work behind his jab and create a busy wall of strikes as he walks down opponents. Given his ability to keep his calm in the cage, I don’t expect he’ll throw himself into too many dangerous spots early. And if that’s the case, I expect he’ll be doing most of the round-winning. Amir Albazi by decision.
Zane Simon: Given Aoriqileng’s love of wild violence and Jay Perrin’s heavy handed boxing, there’s certainly an opportunity for Perrin to pull out the win here. But despite his penchant for power punching, his limited style makes him a pretty predictable opponent, and hasn’t lead to a lot of KO wins, even on the regional scene. If Perrin can’t knock Aoriqileng out, it’s hard to see him keeping up with the Fight Ready talent’s variety and insane will to inflict damage. Aoriqileng by decision.
Zane Simon: A tossup to see if Lacerda can tap Altamirano out before he wears himself out by putting every ounce of energy into every move he does. I’ll pick Lacerda to get the sub, but if he doesn’t, Altamirano is tough enough to make this fight really hard on him. Daniel Lacerda by submission, round 1.
Heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk and Anthony Joshua. | Photo by Francois Nel/Getty Images
A tremendous heavyweight fight from 2021 gets a rematch in 2022.
Three heavyweight titles are on the line on Saturday, August 20th in Saudi Arabia. Reigning WBO, WBA, and IBF champion Oleksandr Usyk (19-0, 13 KOs) took those titles away from Anthony Joshua (24-2, 22 KOs) last year in England, and now he’s defending them for the first time. Obviously this fight could’ve happened sooner if not for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which prompted Usyk to stay in his home country as part of the Ukrainian territorial defense battalion.
With Tyson Fury retired (we think), the winner of this fight would have the claim of boxing’s best heavyweight without any room for debate. Usyk conquered cruiserweight and seems on his way to establishing his legacy as a dominant fighter up at heavyweight, too. Meanwhile, Joshua is looking to repeat his success from 2019, when he lost his titles to Andy Ruiz Jr but won the rematch in Saudi Arabia. He’s carved out his own brilliant professional career but will he get revenge against Usyk? Or does Usyk simply have his number? Let’s get to the preview!
Preview
Oleksandr Usyk was a decorated amateur, winning gold at both the World Championships in 2011 and then the 2012 Summer Olympics in London. As we’ve seen with many other top amateurs from Eastern Europe and Central Asia, there wasn’t much need to slowly develop Usyk as a pro. He had the World Series of Boxing bridge, yes, but is still took him just ten pro fights to win the WBO cruiserweight title from Krzysztof Glowacki. Usyk thoroughly established himself as a pound-for-pound elite with an epic run through the World Boxing Super Series gauntlet, handing Marco Huck, Mairis Briedis, and Murat Gassiev losses in their respective backyards en route to being the undisputed king of the division. In his farewell to cruiserweight, he wrecked Tony Bellew in England to successfully defend those titles.
Usyk’s heavyweight debut in 2019 was supposed to be against Tyrone Spong, but when Spong failed his drug test in stepped a way overmatched Chazz Witherspoon, who was stopped without much resistance. A tougher but still one-sided fight against Dereck Chisora ensued, setting up the showdown with Joshua in September 2021. It was a terrific atmosphere at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, and in the end Usyk kept his perfect record and ‘Road Warrior’ reputation intact with a unanimous decision triumph. I reckon another round or even another minute and Joshua might have been stopped.
Joshua also won Olympic gold in 2012, albeit with controversy, but there was no denying he was one of the best heavyweight talents to come along for quite some time. He turned pro the following year and embarked on a path of destructive knockouts, with his highest profile non-title fight coming against amateur rival Dillian Whyte in 2015. After getting shaken early on, Joshua outclassed Whyte and knocked him damn near out of the ring. His 2016 consisted of winning the IBF heavyweight title against Charles Martin, followed by easy title defenses against Dominic Breazeale and Eric Molina. What made Joshua a major name beyond the United Kingdom was his epic with Wladimir Klitschko, in which he overcame a knockdown to eventually KO Wladimir into retirement.
After beating Joseph Parker he became the holder of the WBA, IBF, and WBO titles, with only Deontay Wilder in possession of the other major belt. While Wilder was getting his rivalry started with Tyson Fury, Joshua had a simple enough task to take on short notice replacement Andy Ruiz Jr in his United States debut back in 2019. What transpired was a shocking KO loss in one of the great upsets in recent boxing history. He prevailed in the rematch later that year, winning a safe decision. Prior to the Usyk loss, Joshua took care of Kubrat Pulev by TKO in front of a limited capacity crowd in England.
The Usyk fight may have been a loss but it wasn’t a total blowout. There were rounds Joshua clearly won and he was able to land some of his best punches on the Ukrainian, but it was hard to ignore that the pace, body work, and volume that Usyk set created problems for Joshua in the latter stages of the contest. Joshua has since changed trainers with the hopes of unlocking the combination to topple Usyk.
Undercard
Not too much to get hyped about. Former super-middleweight champion Callum Smith (28-1, 20 KOs) takes on Mathieu Bauderlique (21-1, 12 KOs) in a title eliminator at light heavyweight. Smith is a comfortable favorite but I wouldn’t totally discount Bauderlique. The co-feature is a rescheduled IBF heavyweight title eliminator between prospect Filip Hrgovic (14-0, 12 KOs) and Zhang Zhilei (24-0-1, 19 KOs). I’ve never been overly impressed with either man but this is a fun scrap that I think Hrgovic should be able to win. Badou Jack (26-3-3, 16 KOs) is pretty much in the phase of his career where he gets gimme fights in the Middle East, and the utterly empty record of Richard Rivera (21-0, 16 KOs) is another example of that. Hey, he’s fought a lot of tough guys over the years so he probably deserves some softer touches to end his career.
Odds and Prediction
The odds are pretty close given how clear-cut the first fight was. Usyk is the favorite at -195 to Joshua’s +150 underdog odds, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Given the incredible fanbase that Joshua has it wouldn’t be a shock to see those odds tighten to nearly a pick ‘em line.
Anthony Joshua is and has been a great fighter. Oleksandr Usyk could end up being one of the absolute best of his era. I suppose the x-factor of Usyk’s mental state given the war in his home country should be acknowledged but I do not want to speculate that much. From strictly a fighting standpoint, there are too many scenarios I see for Joshua where if he does not get a KO — not impossible given his power and the fact that it’s heavyweight — he’ll struggle to keep up with the workrate and speed of Usyk over the course of the contest.
The common belief is that Joshua needs to use his physicality to wear on Usyk more, but that’s easier said than done and it greatly underrates how strong Usyk is. Trying to go for the knockout early might be the best path to victory even if that’s not a high-probability outcome. Joshua has a damn good jab and he should push to use his uppercuts more often than we’ve seen in recent fights. His work to Usyk’s body was subtly brilliant tactics even in defeat.
On Usyk’s side, he’s not that easy to hit cleanly and we’ve never really seen him badly rattled. His southpaw stance is something Joshua openly said gave him trouble, and while Robert Garcia is a terrific trainer I don’t see those problems magically going away. Usyk is not a heavy puncher but he’s accurate, sharp, and his footwork is like a heavyweight Vasiliy Lomachenko. Unlike last time, Usyk will finish Joshua late and end this rivalry. Oleksandr Usyk by KO, Round 10.
Bloody Elbow will have live coverage of Usyk vs. Joshua 2 starting at 12 PM ET/9 AM PT. It is expected that the main event will start at around 5 PM ET/2 PM PT. Viewers around the world except the United Kingdom and Ukraine can catch Usyk vs. Joshua 2 live and streaming on DAZN at no extra cost beyond the subscription fee. If you are in Ukraine, the fight will stream for free on YouTube, while viewers in the United Kingdom must purchase a pay-per-view through Sky Box Office at a cost of £26.95.
Jose Aldo is set to face Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 278. | Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo is set to take on Merab Dvalishvili on August 20.
Former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo is confident ahead of his outing on next Saturday. Paired up against rising prospect Merab Dvalishvili, the Brazilian understands how dangerous his opponent’s wrestling skills are, but does not feel too concerned about it.
In an interview with Ag Fight, Aldo explained why he feels so relaxed ahead of the fight and not too worried about Merab’s takedowns. The way Jose puts it, Dvaslishvili will just not find an opportunity to take him down in the Octagon.
“I can’t see how (he can take and keep me down),” Aldo said. “I train with much more accomplished wrestlers, so you better believe it he won’t even come close to taking me down. When you’re in there against the champion, you’ll see you’re not able to do the things you thought you could do when you were at home. I’m at ease about that.
“People say I train too much and I always tell them I don’t,” Aldo said. “This a skill of mine. It’s much more of that than actual wrestling practice. It has never been a priority of mine during the camp. I drill whatever works for me. I have a good double and single leg, plus my defense. He’s going to look for a grappling match and we’ll keep him away.”
Currently on a three-fight winning streak, with wins over Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Marlon Vera, Aldo (31-7) could secure a title shot with a win over Dvalishvili on Saturday. The 35-year-old’s last loss took place in July 2020, when he got TKO’d by former champion Petr Yan.
Now, Aldo is expected to meet Dvaishivili at UFC 278, on August 20, in Salt Lake City, Utah. The card is scheduled to be headlined by a rematch for the welterweight title between the champion, Kamaru Usman, and challenger Leon Edwards. In their first encounter, the ‘Nigerian Nightmare’ defeated ‘Rocky’ via unanimous decision, back in December 2015.
UFC lightweight Brad Riddell. | Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Two exciting lightweights are set to battle in November.
UFC 281 is filling up nicely.
Lightweight Renato Moicano revealed on an MMA Junkie Twitter Space that his next fight will be on November 12th at New York’s Madison Square Garden against Brad Riddell. Neither fighter is ranked in the UFC’s top-15, but Riddell was ranked prior to his last fight and Moicano was best known for his contending days at featherweight.
Riddell (10-3) is on the first losing streak of his career, having been knocked out by Rafael Fiziev before a surprisingly swift submission at the hands of rising star Jalin Turner. The City Kickboxing standout (and former professional kickboxer) began his UFC tenure with four consecutive wins, most notably a ‘Fight of the Night’ decision over Drew Dober at UFC 263 last June.
Moicano (16-5-1) found success down at featherweight, most notably in wins against Cub Swanson and Calvin Kattar. After back-to-back defeats to Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung, the Brazilian moved up to lightweight and easily submitted Damir Hadzovic. His next fight against Rafael Fiziev ended in a first-round knockout, but he responded with consecutive submissions over Jai Herbert and Alexander Hernandez. Moicano bravely took on Rafael dos Anjos on short notice at UFC 272, losing a mostly one-sided fight but managing to go the distance over five rounds.
UFC 281 features a main event between middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and kickboxing rival Alex Pereira. The co-main event will be a women’s strawweight title defense for Carla Esparza against former champ Zhang Weili.
Paulo Costa at UFC 253. | Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
The Brazilian expects to return to the win column with a finish of Rockhold on Saturday.
Paulo Costa is on the final fight of his UFC contract, and he expects to complete it with a finish of Luke Rockhold at UFC 278.
The Brazilian enters the fight on a two-fight skid, having suffered consecutive losses to reigning UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and No. 3 middleweight contender Marvin Vettori (in a light heavyweight bout). Given that this could be his final appearance in the Octagon, it could be awfully important for the Fight Ready talent to get back to his winning ways to maximize his free agency value.
There are a few options for Costa to consider upon the completion of his contract. He could re-sign with the promotion, test free agency or pursue other ventures such as boxing. Open to all of them, ‘Borrachinha’ remains undecided on what comes next for him after Saturday.
“Let’s see,” said Costa when asked if he would leave the UFC (video provided by MMA Fighting). “We need to talk [with the UFC]. It’s a business. It’s just business for the UFC and for me. We need to talk.”
Before he can sit down and speak with the UFC, Costa has to get through Rockhold first. The former UFC middleweight champion has not fought in over three years following his second-round KO loss to Jan Blachowicz. Considering that was his second straight knockout, concerns over his durability have begun to chase him. However, Rockhold has made it clear that he wanted a challenge in his return and set his sights on Costa, one of the most heavy-handed fighters in the division.
Though confident he can get Rockhold out early, Costa is also ready for a back-and-forth affair.
“I prepare for a war, but I really don’t believe he can hang with me,” said Costa. “I think this fight will finish quickly, but I don’t care. If he could, in some way, hold his [own] and bring a war, I’m ready.”
UFC 278 is headlined by a welterweight championship fight between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards.
A detailed breakdown of the position-by-position statistics to watch out for in Saturday’s UFC 278 fight card from Salt Lake City.
UFC 276 goes down Saturday night in Utah with the return of pound-for-pound #1 ranked champion Kamaru Usman. He’ll square up in a rematch with Leon Edwards, seven years in the making.
The co-main event features a long-awaited return of former UFC and Strikeforce middleweight champ Luke Rockhold who hasn’t fought since before the world knew what Covid-19 is, and hopefully has had ample time for his chin to recover from some devastating knockout losses.
So let’s jump into the numbers for UFC 278’s headliner fights.
Remember, what you’re about to read are not official UFC statistics. They’re alternative stats generated from official statistics designed to (1) give more weight to the recent present than the distant past and (2) not let one huge or horrible performance dominate the data. See the notes at the bottom for definitions of certain statistics.
Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
Edwards and Usman are both are coming in on very nice winning streaks. Usman last tasted defeat over nine years ago when he was choked out on the undercard of CFA 11. And the last time Edwards lost, it was almost seven years ago to Usman – in the early prelims of UFC on FOX 17, two fights after Francis N’Gannou opened the show in his promotional debut.
So it’s definitely been a while.
While they’ve each had long streaks, the dominance edge easily goes to Usman. Even though Edwards has been winning, his scraps tend to be much closer. Put another way, the most statistically dominant fight of Edwards’ 14-bout UFC career was his last-second KO of Peter Sobotta in 2018. Meanwhile, Usman’s had eight showings in his perfect 15-0 UFC career that have been even more dominant than Edwards at his best.
This is partly because Usman has the ability to dominate opponents in multiple ways. In four of his wins, he had over 10 minutes of ground control. In one of his wins, it was over 10 minutes of clinch control. And in three of his wins, he did his thing at distance for over 18 minutes. While wrestling is Usman’s bread and butter, he’s an extremely well rounded fighter.
But all rounds start at distance where Usman and Edwards both tend to spend around three of every five minutes, yet in different ways. Edwards isn’t much of a jabber, throwing 34% fewer head jabs than the average welterweight and 40% fewer than Usman. Edwards also throws a slightly less than average power volume, but when he unleashes those attacks, he’s accurate.
Edwards connects with half of his power strikes at distance. This is partly because he’s accurate to the head (41% vs Usman’s 37%) and partly because he does a good job mixing in more higher percentage shots to the body and legs (75% head, 15% body, 10% legs). Tagging your opponents is a good thing, but one issue Edwards has had is that opponents don’t tend to fall when he lands with power. While Edwards has four total knockdowns to his name, once we account for his time in the Octagon and activity levels, his three knockdown metrics come in 41-56% lower than the typical welterweight and 73-80% below Usman’s.
Meanwhile Usman is more active and accurate with head jabs and, while his power volume makes up for slightly less accuracy, Usman’s relative knockdown power was just shown above.
The end result, though, is that Edwards appears to be very much a live dog at distance. But if the fight moves to the clinch or ground, the numbers don’t crunch in his favor.
While both fighters spend 41 seconds to a minute of every round clinched up, Usman is the controlling fighter 74% of the time to Edwards’ 42%. And since damage is what really matters, while he’s there Usman blasts a +10.9 power strike differential (per five minutes in the position, P5M) to Edwards’ +2.8. And then there are takedowns. Usman attempts clinch takedowns at an average rate but completes a rock solid 60% (46% average). He’s also never been taken down anywhere, at distance or the clinch.
If Edwards does hit the canvas, in spite of his average to slightly better than average takedown defense, Usman’s maintained 100% top control during his time on the ground (68% for Edwards).
100%!
It’s hard to compare power strike differentials in this world since Usman’s only been controlled for basically a rounding error amount of time – 2 seconds of his 78 ground minutes – but his offensive GnP game connects with opponents 55% more than an average welterweight and 134% more than Edwards.
While the submission game is certainly a possibility – both guys have tapped out one opponent in the UFC – they don’t attempt them with much frequency and neither has been tapped in their time with Zuffa.
So how does this fight go down? In what should statistically be one of Usman’s worlds or at distance where the stats are much less certain of the outcome? I can’t wait to find out.
Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold
The co-main event also has streaks, but not the good kind. Costa and Rockhold each enter the cage Saturday on two-fight losing skids.
While Costa was the victim of an Israel Adesanya “Flawless Victory” two years ago, he at least took 2-of-5 rounds against Marvin Vettori last year. The concerning thing for Rockhold is he’s been on the receiving end of highlight reel knockouts in three of his last four outings.
When they start at distance, Rockhold still maintains small but positive head jab and power differentials. He also mixes in body and leg strikes extremely well. But Costa’s got a nasty power volume and differential. Spending 4:30 of every five minutes standing in open space, Costa throws almost twice the power volume of a typical middleweight and he out-strike’s his opponents with a +14.8 differential P5M.
Against recent-Rockhold, it’s very possible that only one of those 14.8 will be needed to shut the lights off. Costa’s knockdown round percentage is more than double the average middleweight, and in alternative stats, so is Rockhold’s rate of getting cracked – his knocked down round percentage.
If Rockhold takes Izzy’s advice and tries to “start wrestling straight away,” he’s probably going to want to clinch up first. Costa’s defended 15-of-16 takedown attempts at distance while Rockhold’s only landed a measly 1-of-18. Rockhold’s at least been better in the clinch, going 5-of-15 on lower body takedown attempts. And while Costa’s only faced three such attempts in his UFC career, he’s twice succumbed and only once successfully defended.
While in the clinch, Rockhold tends to be the fighter with control against the cage (59% to Costa’s 4%), and if he’s able to take the fight to the ground, he’s the top position fighter 61% of the time to Costa’s 32%. And we know the danger Rockhold poses from there.
Rockhold’s got a nasty +47.1 power strike GnP differential from the ground (P5M) and he throws up 2.4 sub attempts per five modified ground minutes (see notes below) completing 43%. That means he attempts 72% more submissions than a typical middleweight and has a 70% better completion percentage.
The man is dangerous on the ground.
But will Rockhold ever have a chance to get there without it being for Costa’s finishing blows? That’s the big question which leads me to say:
Bring on the glorious fights!
Statistical Notes: Strike attempts are per an entire five minute round in each position (P5M) and are categorized as jab or power. A jab is just a non-power strike. Strikes are documented based on where they land or are targeted (head, body, legs), not the type that is thrown (punch, elbow, kick, knee). Knockdown rate is per five minutes at distance or in the clinch off the cage. Knockdown percentage is per power head strike landed while standing. It’s really hard to knock someone down if they’re already on the ground. Knockdown/Damage round percentage is the percentage of rounds with at least one knockdown or busted up face, respectively. Clinch control is having the opponent pressed against the cage. Ground control is having top position or the opponent’s back. Submission attempts are per five minutes of ground control minus time spent in the opponent’s guard plus time spent with the opponent in guard.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. He’s also an ABC-certified referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.
Kamaru Usman is favored in his rematch with Leon Edwards in the UFC 278 main event | Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Check out the midweek betting odds for Saturday’s UFC 278 card, where welterweight champ Kamaru Usman is favored over Leon Edwards, and Paulo Costa over Luke Rockhold.
This weekend’s UFC 278 card is setting sail this Saturday from the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. The PPV portion of this event is scheduled to start at 10:00PM ET, with the early prelims beginning at 6:00PM ET. Now let’s go look at some betting odds!
The top of the UFC 278 billing will be a high stakes rematch between the current welterweight champion, Kamaru Usman, and the promotion’s #2 ranked 170-pounder, Leon Edwards. The first time these top flight fighters went at it was at UFC on FOX 17 in 2015, with Usman being a -300 betting favorite to Edwards’ underdog value of +220. Kamaru came up with the three-round unanimous decision victory that evening, and has been on quite the roll ever since.
This time around, the stakes are much higher, and the now welterweight king is a bit larger of a betting favorite. For UFC 278, Usman is clocking in with a sizable moneyline of -380, while Edwards is on deck with a hearty underdog tag of +310. It should be noted that Edwards has not lost since his 2015 encounter with Usman (not counting his backstage scuffle with Jorge Masvidal), but let’s not forget that we’ve never seen Kamaru lose in the UFC.
In the co-main event of the night, the UFC’s former middleweight champion, Luke Rockhold, will be returning to action after a three year hiatus to take on the ever-dangerous Paulo Costa. Rockhold is positioned with a rather large underdog line of +285, while Costa is trending at a substantially favored tick of -345. The wideness of this betting line isn’t too surprising since Luke has been brutally knocked out in three of his last four outings, but to be fair Paulo hasn’t exactly been puttin’ on the ritz in the last two years either.
Check out the UFC 278 betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
Be sure to check back in with Bloody Elbow to catch the final betting odds on fight day, as the moneylines tend to shift a bit following the weigh-ins. Don’t forget to subscribe to our Bloody Elbow Presents YouTube channel to stay up to date with all of our podcast content. Happy hunting!
Jose Aldo is set to face Merab Dvalishivili at UFC 278. | Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo analyzes the bantamweight title picture ahead of his fight at UFC 278.
Former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo will have his hands full at this Saturday’s UFC 278, but this has not stopped the Brazilian from analyzing the next title fight in his current division.
Paired up against Merab Dvalishivili in what could be a title eliminator at bantamweight, Aldo is rather interested in the winner of UFC 280’s bout between Aljamain Sterling and T.J. Dillashaw.
In an interview with YouTube Channel Encarada, Aldo analyzed the pairing and pointed Sterling as a heavy favorite over Dillashaw. In Jose’s opinion, T.J.’s two-year layoff due to doping suspension and his most recent performance just raise too many questions for the Brazilian to have faith in the former champion.
“For me, Sterling is a massive favorite,” Aldo said. “He showed it in the (second) Yan fight. His gameplan, his preparation. If I had to bet, I’d put my money on Sterling. I think he’s going to impose his will in the fight. I mean no disrespect to T.J, because he’s a great athlete, but I think his moment has passed. These two years that he spent away and wasn’t tested. I can say this again, the whole doping issue, everything he built. We don’t know how he did it, if it was really his body, because when the antidoping caught up to him, he always took two punches and folded.
“It’s not the same as when he used to fight before, when he was more exposed,” Aldo said. “You better believe that it’s a huge difference. So when he’s walking out there, he will be trying to prove it to himself, to find out if he can still do what he did before he got caught doping. He will have an opponent inside his head from the start. So, for me, Sterling is a huge favorite.”
Currently on a three-fight winning streak, with wins over Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Marlon Vera, Aldo (31-7) could secure a title shot with a win over Dvalishvili on Saturday. The 35-year-old’s last loss took place in July 2020, when he got TKO’d by former champion Petr Yan.
Now, Aldo is expected to meet Dvaishivili at UFC 278, on August 20, in Salt Lake City, Utah. The card is scheduled to be headlined by a rematch for the welterweight title between the champion, Kamaru Usman, and challenger Leon Edwards.
File under: Bloodyelbow.com | Leave a comment »