Sean O’Malley wants to be the next Conor McGregor? He has to prove that he can step to the plate and deliver. Again.
Much of the talk ahead of Saturday’s UFC 306 card at Sphere in Las Vegas is centered around O’Malley potentially ascending to another level of stardom should he successfully defend his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili. The seemingly indomitable challenger has all the makings of a dynasty-buster, with non-stop cardio, an iron will, and a relentless wrestling attack seemingly tailor-made to negate what O’Malley does best.
Like McGregor, O’Malley has heard plenty of naysaying since being christened as the next big thing by no higher authority than Snoop Dogg after being signed off of Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017. But McGregor was fueled by the doubters and much to their frustration, he silenced them over and over again with game-changing wins over Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, and two-fight rival Nate Diaz.
Simply put, when the spotlight was on McGregor, he consistently shined. O’Malley appears to walk the same path, but Dvalishvili can cast him back into the shadows with one impressive night at the office.
Alexa Grasso is also out to answer a question, that being whether she deserves to be recognized as the undisputed ruler of the 125-pound division.
She beat Valentina Shevchenko once, but when the opportunity came for Grasso to cement her position, their intensely contested rematch was muddled by a questionable final round score that resulted in a split draw.
Grasso and Shevchenko are so evenly matched, it’s entirely possible that Saturday’s co-main event leaves us with more questions than answers. As fans, we can only hope that this time we get a conclusive finish—even if the rivalry itself isn’t over.
In other main card action, two-time featherweight title challenger Brian Ortega faces the rapidly rising Diego Lopes, blue-chip lightweight prospect Daniel Zellhuber fights Esteban Ribovics, and flyweights Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode Osbourne look to open the main card with a highlight-reel finish.
What: UFC 306
Where: Sphere in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Sept. 14. The five-fight preliminary card begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews and ESPN+, followed by the five-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Sean O’Malley (1, P4P-12) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (2, P4P-20)
Before I make my official pick of Dvalishvili by decision, let me just say I’m aware all of the reasons I’m about to pick the challenger to knock off Sean O’Malley also applied to Aljamain Sterling when he lost the bantamweight title to O’Malley. I fully understand what I’m getting into here.
And so… Merab Dvalishvili is just going to wrestle the hell out of O’Malley, isn’t he?
For whatever reason, Sterling never got his grappling going against O’Malley and that proved to be his downfall as he was clipped and put away in the second round. Was it a bad game plan? O’Malley’s superb movement? Arrogance? We’ll never know. What I do know is that Aljo’s buddy won’t fall into that same trap.
He’s going to shoot early and often, he’s going to shoot late and often. He’s going to be on O’Malley like Jon Jones on Twitter when Tom Aspinall receives the slightest praise: Relentless, irritating, and a little crazy.
What makes this pick not so obvious is that O’Malley—for all the assumptions that he’s just a striker with no ground game—hasn’t really been defused by grappling. Petr Yan neutralized him for parts of their fight, but couldn’t do much offensively with the control. Raulian Paiva never had a chance to show his jiu-jitsu. And Sterling, well, we’ve been over that weirdness.
And Dvalishvili gets hit! He’s a pressure fighter extraordinaire, but that sometimes means just wading through strikes. Has he ever fought someone with O’Malley’s speed, power, and accuracy on the feet (sadly, I cannot count a late-30s Jose Aldo, as much as I want to)? Even the best chins crumble when advancing directly into a perfectly placed punch.
I’ve seen Dvalishvili grind his way to a win too many times to count him out now, so I’m sticking with my gut and expecting to see “And New” flashing on the Sphere walls in gigantic, eye-popping letters.
Dvalishvili by decision.
Pick: Dvalishvili
Alexa Grasso (1, P4P-2) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (2, P4P-3)
Seriously, how do you separate these two after a pair of fights that were decided by a slip-up the first time and a funky scorecard? I’ve watched Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko fight for almost 45 minutes (more if you include replays) and it’s impossible to say who is better. We’re talking a difference of inches here when it comes to their striking, grappling, and whatever other skills you choose to take into account when comparing fighters.
Theoretically, this is Grasso’s fight to lose. She’s younger, she owns a submission win over Shevchenko, and you could make a case for her being 2-0 in the series. But outside of a pair of costly errors, there’s little sign that “Bullet” has slowed down at all compared to the peak of her championship run.
Watch those fights again. There were moments where Shevchenko was crisply outboxing Grasso, threatening with submissions, and leading the dance. On that same token, Grasso had plenty of decisive attacks herself and one could argue the she owned the most damaging sequences overall in both fights (the fourth-round submission, the knockdown in Round 1 of the rematch, and then the closing ground-and-pound flurry in the rematches final minute).
I scored the second fight for Grasso, so as far as I’m concerned, she has Shevchenko’s number. At least that’s what I’m telling myself to get through this pick without running my brain in another circle.
Grasso by decision.
Pick: Grasso
Brian Ortega (5) vs. Diego Lopes (14)
Somehow, a decade into his UFC career, Brian Ortega is still running the same script. That being, he’s losing a fight until he isn’t.
Against the deeply skilled Diego Lopes, that strategy will finally falter. Like many of Ortega’s opponents, Lopes should tune Ortega up on the feet and he has more than enough grappling in his bag to slow and perhaps even top Ortega’s always exciting ground game. The 145-pound division is no country for old men (with the exception of Max Holloway and even he’s due for a meeting with Father Time when he fights Ilia Topuria this October) and Lopes is in his prime while Ortega appears to be aging out. Add in the fact that Ortega already has one eye on the 155-pound division and you can see why I’m leaning the other way.
Ortega is tough to finish, so I don’t expect Lopes to be the first to submit him or hand him an out-cold knockout loss. Look for the player-coach to win a comfortable decision before hitting the showers and coming out for the co-main event to corner Grasso.
Pick: Lopes
Esteban Ribovics vs. Daniel Zellhuber
At 6-foot-1 and just 25 years old, Daniel Zellhuber has all the makings of a lightweight contender as long as he can make the cut and keep his head on straight. He still has a lot to learn, but he has physical gifts and finishing instincts you can’t teach.
With an upgrade in competition in the UFC, it’s understandable that Zellhuber has shown some warts here and there. Defense has to be learned and Zellhuber has definitely done that the hard way as he’s been cracked in a few of his fights.
The key to beating a tall fighter like Zellhuber is to crowd him, something Esteban Ribovics is more than capable of. He’s a confident puncher who throws with volume and he’ll likely pounce on Zellhuber early. Ribovics is an almost 2-to-1 underdog, so you know he’s eager to spoil the party for the Mexican fans in attendance.
I’d like to see Zellhuber use his long limbs more to grapple, which could be the key to stifling Ribovics. Neither man has ever been finished, but I think Zellhuber can surprise Ribovics in the latter half of the fight by mixing in takedowns to wear him down.
It’s a long shot, but I’m going Zellhuber by submission here.
Pick: Zellhuber
Ode Osbourne vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez
Ode Osbourne is saying all the right things about not just being a walkover to give Ronaldo Rodriguez a crowd-pleasing win, but the reality is that Rodriguez knows his way around a choke and that just happens to be one of Osbourne’s weaknesses.
This fight will be exciting for as long as it lasts and Rodriguez definitely has to be defensively mindful if he’s to avoid being added to Osbourne’s list of fast finishes. The opening will be there for him to take Osbourne down and when he does, a submission finish should soon follow.
Rodriguez taps Osbourne out in the first.
Pick: Rodriguez
Preliminaries
Irene Aldana (6) def. Norma Dumont (12)
Manuel Torres def. Ignacio Bahamondes
Yazmin Jauregui def. Ketlen Souza
Joshua Van def. Edgar Chairez
Raul Rosas Jr. def. Aoriqileng
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