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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight knockout artists Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev will rematch this weekend (Sat., March 8, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC 313.

Coming off the monumental UFC 300 knockout loss to Max Holloway, it’s easy to forget that “The Highlight” was riding high into that contest. He had earned a title shot the instant his high kick landed on Dustin Poirier, but the timing didn’t immediately work out, and staying active backfired. At 36 years of age, Gaethje is still in pursuit of that final opportunity for gold, the long-desired showdown versus Islam Makhachev.

Meanwhile, Fiziev has been on the sidelines since September 2023 after his knee exploded in the cage. He’s been ready to return for a while though, and he was quick to jump on this short-notice rematch as soon as news of Dan Hooker’s broken hand released. It’s a gamble for the Muay Thai ace, who either loses three straight or jumps into immediate title contention.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Gaethje vs. Fiziev Betting Odds

• Justin Gaethje victory: +136
• Justin Gaethje via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Justin Gaethje via submission: TBD
• Justin Gaethje via decision: TBD
• Rafael Fiziev victory: -162
• Rafael Fiziev via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Rafael Fiziev via submission: TBD
• Rafael Fiziev via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Gaethje Wins

Justin Gaethje is a savage. Regardless of whether he’s mauling his way forward or working more of an outside game, he commits himself fully to every exchange and never stops trying to take his opponent’s head off.

Pressuring Fiziev — an excellent kicker — is generally a good idea. Fiziev’s style of fighting is extremely taxing, and explosive kicks are even harder to fire from the back foot. Given the short-notice nature of the booking, attacking that gas tank with pressure and his usual volume is likely to pay off.

The other big key here for Gaethje is to work his jab. In the first bout, he spent ten minutes scrapping without sticking the jab. As soon as he started firing his jab, he took over completely and bloodied up Fiziev! Surely fatigue and wear played a factor as well, but throughout his career, Gaethje’s jab has been an underutilized weapon that is nasty when it does show up.

Why wait?

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Fiziev Wins

Fiziev has a long background in Muay Thai and has even coached striking at Tiger Muay Thai. He has very fast, powerful kicks and explosive punching combinations. He tends to control range really well, managing the distance to the point that a slight pull allows him to fire back.

Hopefully, Fiziev has been paying attention to Justin Gaethje’s previous defeats, because the book is definitely written on what works against “The Highlight.” That’s not to say it’s easy, but we know Gaethje can struggle in the face of active feints, an active jab, and effective body work.

In the first fight, Fiziev kicked the mid-section rather well, and he should go back to that well here. However, he could stand to do more body punching too. Jabbing up-and-down the body is a good option, but using the threat of his kicks to set up the left hook to the liver would be classic Muay Thai as well.

Gaethje relies extensively on his high guard. If his mid-section is pummeled, that guard will lower and his punches will be less thudding, allowing Fiziev to find his own hooks and overhands.

Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images

Gaethje vs. Fiziev Prediction

I don’t believe either man has changed dramatically since the first fight. It’s possible, of course, that the Max Holloway KO or ACL injury have ruined Gaethje or Fiziev athletically. We haven’t seen them fight since then, however, so there’s really no way to know.

Assuming both of them are still close to their 2023 standard … why wouldn’t their bout play out similarly? Gaethje finished strong with momentum in his corner back then, having made the better adjustments to take over late in the fight. He should be able to continue that flow, and the short-notice aspect of the match up only favors him as well.

Fiziev is definitely capable of a big knockout, but I don’t see a reason on paper why he should fare better under worse circumstances.

Prediction: Gaethje via decision

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

Israel Adesanya believes Alex Pereira gets it done this weekend.

On Saturday, Pereira puts his light heavyweight title on the line when he takes on Magomed Ankalaev in the main event of UFC 313. Pereira has been perfect since moving up to 205 pounds in the UFC, winning five in a row, including the straight title defenses in 2024.

However, Pereira now arguably faces his toughest test to date in Ankalaev, a fighter many touted as a future champion of this division and some even suggested the UFC was protecting Pereira from. All that is out the window now though and Adesanya believes “Poatan” has a number of advantages heading into this matchup.

“Leg kicks. Let’s just address the f*cking elephant in the room,” Adesanya said on his YouTube channel. “That’s going to be a factor in this fight. He might have to become a wrestler in this fight. He might have to go into his bag for this one because he can’t just — I think ego is a part of it.

“Fight talk. He’s saying what he has to say to get the fight. ‘I’ll stand up with him.’ Yeah, it will start off standing but I don’t think it’s going to keep standing. He’s going to clinch. He’s definitely going to try and take him down. I think Ankalaev is going to try and take him down. Can he keep him down? Alex Pereira is a black belt in jiu-jitsu now. He’s exponentially getting better. I haven’t really seen him use it much in a fight because he hasn’t had to, but I’ve seen him roll with some people recently and it was a lot different from what I remember. It seems like he flows better on the ground.”

Of course, Adesanya knows what he’s talking about; he fought Pereira four times across kickboxing and MMA, finally defeating “Poatan” in their second MMA fight at UFC 287. And having spent so much time exchanging blows with Pereira, Adesanya believes he continues rolling through the light heavyweight division on Saturday.

“[Ankalaev] is going to shoot because he’s going to get tagged on the legs, and again, he could get clocked in the face,” Adesanya said. “If you say Magomed has good straight shots, that’s something Ale has to watch out for, and he switches a lot. Southpaw will be the best stance for Magomed. …

“Maybe I’m banking too much on the leg kicks. I have experience with it and I know how effective it is. Regardless, I’m going to go with Pereira because of momentum. He’s just on a tear right now. … When you have that kind of frame and power, you trust in your skillset so much.”

That being said, Adesanya isn’t giving Ankalaev no chance to win, he just thinks it’s going to be hard given the run of form Pereira is on right now.

“Ankalaev, speed,” Adesanya said. “But he’ll have to catch Alex when he makes a mistake. So counters. If he catches him on a counter it could be a dangerous night, but I just think this is going to go leg kicks, leg kicks, leg kicks, left hook. Alex Pereira by KO. … Four or five. He’s going to knock him out in the fourth or fifth round.”

TOP STORIES

TKO. It’s official. Dana White and Turki Alalshikh are teaming up for a massive new boxing venture.

Back? White teases a summer comeback for Jon Jones… and potentially a fight with Tom Aspinall?

Ramadan. Magomed Ankalaev reveals changes he made for fight week during Ramadan, responds to Alex Pereira’s wager.

$ $ $ . UFC owners address rumors about seeking over $ 1 billion per year in new broadcast rights deal.

Rundown. Upcoming UFC featherweight title challenger Diego Lopes shares his thoughts on Movsar Evloev, Patricio Pitbull, and Aljamain Sterling.

Prediction. Jamahal Hill tells fans to expect to hear “And New” at UFC 313.

KC. The updated lineup for UFC Kansas City has been announced.

VIDEO STEW

UFC 313 media day.

MMA Fighting’s Damon Martin talks to Curtis Blaydes ahead of his fight at UFC 313.

UFC 313 Embedded, episode 3.

Alex Pereira fight week.

FLAVOR IN YOUR EAR

No Bets Barred. MMA Fighting’s Jed Meshew gives his best bets for what is expected to be a hotly contested UFC 313 main event, plus more picks for Saturday’s pay-per-view.

SOCIAL MEDIA BOUILLABAISSE

This goes as well as you would expect.

Only Tony.

If you’re a fighter or know a fighter involved, please tell them to do this!

Fight camp for Kelvin Gastelum.

Yoel Romero is back.

FIGHT ANNOUNCEMENTS

Randy Brown (19-6) vs. Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1, 2 NC); UFC Kansas City, Apr. 26.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I’m increasingly excited about the main event this weekend. This is the two best light heavyweights in the world locking horns in a fascinating matchup of styles. I know people really want Pereira to skip right to Jon Jones or Tom Aspinall, but I always wanted this fight and I think it’s going to be a really fun one. Almost there.

EXIT POLL

If you find something you’d like to see in the Morning Report, hit up @AlexanderKlee or @JedKMeshew on Twitter and let us know about it. Also, follow MMAFighting on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, and like us on Facebook.

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

The UFC is expected to sign the most lucrative broadcast rights deal in company history in 2025 but is the organization actually seeking over $ 1 billion per year as part of these negotiations?

That’s the question TKO Group Holdings president and chief operating officer Mark Shapiro addressed on Monday during an appearance at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom conference. While there’s little doubt that the UFC is expected to exceed the parameters of the current deal at ESPN, which started back in 2018, reports surfaced that the company was seeking a huge increase by comparison when the new deal kicks in starting in 2026.

The original five year deal with ESPN was worth $ 1.5 billion with the two sides eventually tacking on two more years along with pay-per-view broadcasts added into the contract.

“All I would say on this — this isn’t so folks can get hot under the collar or get cold or take it as ‘he’s encouraged, he’s optimistic, but he’s not bullish.’ We don’t have to read between the lines here,” Shapiro said. “It’s simple. Of course, we’re going to maximize value. Of course, we think we’re undervalued — not because we did a bad deal — because seven years is a long time and the decks shuffle. But I think, name your analyst, there’s a lot out there.

“I’m not saying we’re not going to get two-times [as much], whatever it might be, that’s generally just word of mouth. That’s not coming from the company.”

That said, Shapiro recognizes the notion that the UFC could potentially be worth that much in a new broadcast rights deal probably stems from a few different factors.

First and foremost, sports rights packages are still huge business, especially with streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video getting involved in the bidding. The NBA struck a deal that kicked off in 2025 worth $ 76 billion across 11 years — more than double the previous deal at $ 24 billion over nine years.

“I think people are just looking at various other leagues and thinking the UFC is hot and growing and diverse and young and half our audience is 18 to 34, and we’re full year round, we have no offseason, we’re taking place every single weekend and we’re growing globally,” Shapiro said. “We’re in 170 countries with huge opportunity for growth. Europe, LatAm (Latin America), APAC (Asia-Pacific region), MENA (Middle East, Northern Africa), all huge areas of opportunistic growth and they’re just thinking the sky is unlimited here. These guys can go to outer space!

“But they’re also balancing that with reading about MLB and reading about F1 and so I would just tell you there’s no early inning information. We cherish our relationship with ESPN and Disney. By the way, they have a lot to do with our success and our growth and we’re in our [exclusive negotiating] window and we’re trying to figure out a way with them to renew. We may or may not come out of the window, we’ll see what happens.”

The two deals Shapiro mentioned referenced ESPN opting out of its broadcast deal with Major League Baseball and not striking a deal to keep Formula-1 racing either (although talks are reportedly still ongoing).

Right now, the UFC is still in an exclusive negotiating window with ESPN through April 15 but after that date expires, the company can begin fielding offers from other prospective partners.

Shapiro knows there are going to be no shortage of offers trying to land the UFC’s broadcast rights but he also recognizes that the company has to take a look at long term success rather than a short term cash grab.

In other words, a streaming service or even a network could offer a ridiculous number to land the UFC’s broadcast fights but if that outlet doesn’t provide the same kind of exposure as say ESPN, it might not be worth the extra money.

“Our job is to grow the brand,” Shapiro said. “This is a nascent sport, it’s mainstream now but it’s nascent. It’s early days. It’s turned into a major but when you compare it to MLB, which has been around for 100 years, an NFL, which has been around 100 years, we have a long way to go here. So we have to gauge reach, engagement, brand strength with dollars. We’re playing the long game here. That’s how we kind of size up our negotiations and the different suitors that are out there.

“Because there are some folks, some platforms, some channels that would pay more but aren’t necessarily the best fit for our brand. At the end of the day, we have to live for the next deal. We have to grow this, grow our audience, monetize our audience, but make sure we are in the most competitive position so when this deal is up seven years from now, five years from now, 10 years from now — likely when myself or Ari [Emanuel] are long gone — we’re set up for success with the next group, the next level.”

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Two More Weeks
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UFC

Welcome to Midnight Mania!

Alex Pereira is fighting for more than just his fourth title defense this weekend (Sat., March 1, 2025) when he takes on Combat Sambo ace Magomed Ankalaev in the UFC 313 main event. If “Poatan” plays his cards right, he could also score a UFC Heavyweight title shot, as well as a possible super fight versus current big man roost-ruler Jon Jones.

That’s according to UFC CEO Dana White.

There are a lot of moving factors to consider when planning the futures of two separate divisions. First and foremost, White’s goal is to get “Bones” booked against interim Heavyweight king Tom Aspinall, and he’s targeting a summer date for that highly anticipated match up.

“The plan is to fight Jon this summer,” White explained on The Jim Rome Show (via MMAFighting). “Obviously, when, where and all that stuff is being determined. My goal this year is to make that fight [with] Aspinall.”

Jones vs. Aspinall is one of the most demanded fights possible right now, widely considered the most dangerous threat to Jones’ (nearly) undefeated record in many years. Unifying the Heavyweight crown is a must, but afterwards, there’s an opening for Pereira to jump into title contention in a third weight class.

“The other thing about Pereira that everybody loves is, this guy wants to go up to heavyweight and fight at heavyweight, too,” White said. “I’m the one that’s actually holding him back on that.”

He continued, “He wants to [fight Jon Jones]. Let’s see how this fight plays out, if he wins, how he wins, all that kind of stuff … I think that the fight that everybody wants to see right now is Jones and Aspinall and then there’s no doubt that Pereira could fight the winner.”

Regardless of who is victorious between Jones and Aspinall, a match up versus a defending “Poatan” would be absolutely huge. Nobody has ever even tried to capture a third UFC title, let alone while being the most exciting knockout artist in the sport. That’s the kind of headliner that makes for the PPV of the year.

If Pereira can get by Ankalaev on Saturday, at least.

Insomnia

What’s your take on the TKO/Turki Alalshikh partnership? Will it disrupt boxing, improving matchmaking, both, or neither?

I thought as a general rule, the combat sports community has agreed not to drug test kickboxing.

Jean Silva knows how to market his fights (aside from simply being extremely entertaining).

One of these days, Daniel Cormer is going to throw his back out shooting singles on Alex Pereira.

The most recent Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner Ryan Loder returns against 19-3 Azamat Bekoev.

Based on recent officiating, UFC referees would let this fly with a warning.

Mauricio Ruffy named himself after an anime character, and he’s fighting a man who renamed himself King. MMA isn’t real!

Slips, rips, and KO clips

Straight right inside the left hook, an eternal battle.

Absolutely devious single leg guard play!

Two of the best Lightweights of their era absolutely throwing down!

Random Land

Beauty at the bottom of the Grand Canyon.

Midnight Music: Hip-hop, 1996

Sleep well Maniacs! More martial arts madness is always on the way.

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