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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 95 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Aug. 10, 2024) on ESPN and ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a heavyweight main event between Top 10 title contenders Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.

It’s also a rematch of their 2020 affair, which ended in favor of “Tybur.”

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the featherweight banger between Chepe Mariscal and Damon Jackson, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 95 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Tybura vs. Spivac 2” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For UFC Vegas 95 live results and play-by-play click here.

265 lbs.: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac

Marcin “Tybur” Tybura
Record: 25-8 | Age: 38 | Betting line: +136
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 5 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.60 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.35 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 1.43 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 79%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Submission win over Tai Tuivasa

Serghei “The Polar Bear” Spivac
Record: 16-4 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -162
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.54 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.79 | Striking Defense: 49%
Takedown Average: 4.56 (64% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 70%
Current Ranking: No. 9 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Ciryl Gane

Marcin Tybura has been fighting under the UFC banner for more than eight years and in that time has compiled a 12-7 record, which is kind of like 3.6 roentgen … not great, not terrible. The fact that Tybura has yet to crack the division Top 5 after eight years should tell you where his ceiling is located, evidenced by losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov (both Top 5 fighters). That said, the Polish powerhouse typically performs well against the bottom half of the division or one-dimensional sluggers, like Tai Tuivasa and Walt Harris. For UFC Vegas 95, he’ll once again square off against Serghei Spivac, who like Tybura, has been around for awhile (more than five years) and can’t seem to get over the heavyweight hump.

“He for sure (improved),” Tybura said at the UFC Vegas 95 media day (watch it here). “I saw a couple of his fights, and he had a very good performance using his skills, throwing his takedowns, making submissions. I can see he gained some weight, muscles mostly, so he’s more power, more strong. For sure, he’s a different fighter.”

“It’s always excitement when the UFC calls, offers you a fight,” Tybura continued. “I’ve been here long and have lots of fights, but is still the same. I know how UFC was a big dream for me, so when I get the call, I’m always excited. Sure, I rather fight somebody that gets me closer to the top, but I feel like you can gain something in every fight.”

“I’ve been in fights where I’ve been really close to getting there, and I didn’t manage to do it, so right now I’m just trying to focus on the fight,” Tybura said. “That’s what I’m doing. It’s like my fight with Tom Aspinall, which was two fights ago. Right now, it’s like looking for some answers that I don’t know yet and look to see to be a Top 5 fighter.”

Spivac is 6-2 in eight fights since dropping a decision to Tybura at UFC Fight Night 169, just a few months before COVID-19 delivered us to the APEX era. Unfortunately, those two losses came against top-ranked heavyweight hurters Ciryl Gane and Tom Aspinall, proving “The Polar Bear” is not quite ready for the big time. Like Tybura, the Moldovan is well-rounded with his finishes spread equally across knockouts and submissions. His wrestling is where he really shines and Spivac currently holds the UFC record for takedown accuracy in the heavyweight division at 64.3 percent. In his first go-round with Tybura, Spivac was 0-1 in takedowns against 2-8 for “Tybur.” I would be surprised if that statistic was not flipped for this rematch because Tybura turns 39 in November and the 29 year-old Spivac is now fighting in his competitive prime.

“This is actually the first rematch of my career, so it’s not like I’ve felt this before,” Spivac said at the UFC Vegas 95 media day (watch it here). “But I don’t think about it in any certain way. We’re just close to each other in the rankings, so it is just set for us to fight again. I’m going to come out, I’m going to fight. It’s just a sport. That’s the way I feel.”

“I wasn’t as experienced back then as I was now, I was very, very young,” Spivac continued. “But I don’t want to look for excuses. He won. He won fair and square, and he did a great job back then. I think he still does a good job now. He’s a great fighter, so we’ll see what happens. But yeah, obviously it’s going to be a very different fight.”

I’m expecting a close, competitive contest that has “The Polar Bear” winning with a well-timed takedown late in the fight.

Prediction: Spivac def. Tybura by decision

145 lbs.: Jose Mariscal vs. Damon Jackson

Jose “Chepe” Mariscal
Record: 16-6, 1 NC | Age: 31 | Betting line: -218
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’7“ | Reach: 69” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.70 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.68 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 2.35 (28% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 66%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Split decision win over Morgan Charriere

Damon “The Leech” Jackson
Record: 23-6-1, 1 NC | Age: 36 | Betting line: +180
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 15 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.00 | Striking accuracy: 41%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.29 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 2.51 (35% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 40%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez

Note: The promotion’s last-minute lineup changes (more on that here) pushed Jose Mariscal vs. Damon Jackson into the co-main event, which Andrew Richardson previously covered in his X-Factor breakdown (reposted below, along with comments from both Mariscal and Jackson).

I very much enjoy watching “The Leech” fight. He’s not the most athletic man on the roster, but Jackson knows how to use his range well, and he’s quite excellent on the mat. 30 fights into his professional career, Jackson appears to still be at his best at 35 years of age, which is an impressive accomplishment in its own right.

“The way the fans, the people look at it, I’m the underdog this fight,” Jackson said at the UFC Vegas 95 media day (watch it here). “It blows my freaking mind. I’m coming out there and making a statement for sure. He’s ‘the next big thing’ — I’ve heard this story over and over.(Movlid) Khaybulaev, Pat (Sabatini), all these guys. They throw out these names. Like yeah, the kid is good. He’s tough as hell, too, and I know he’s game to fight. I know this is going to be a great fight for the fans and definitely worthy of a co-main or main event spot. It’s a tough fight. I’m not looking past him in any way. Just mentally right now and physically right now, I’m just at a different level and he can’t handle me on the ground.”

Mariscal has shown a strong mix of skills as well. He was lucky to escape with the split-decision nod in his last bout versus Morgan Charriere, but even in that difficult scrap, Mariscal showed his grit and smarts to up the pressure, wrestle, and find success when the bout started out strongly in his opponent’s favor.

“With his IQ and everything else, he’s good at calculating his takedowns and everything else,” Mariscal said at the UFC Vegas 95 media day (watch it here). “I feel like he’s not that big of a brawler and if he runs into a brawler it’s kind of like, you know, a bad end for him, and I feel like this is that kind of fight. I feel like he’s really got to use his IQ to fight me. I definitely want a finish. I think he’s looking for a finish. I feel like if you have to do good in this business, you have to be a finisher and yeah, I feel like for the second it’s going to be the goal.”

I’m expecting a close and competitive fight here. Both can compete everywhere, so it’s not as simple as one man taking down the other and easily winning. Jackson has small advantages in height and reach, as well as a large edge in overall high-level experience. Mariscal, however, is the younger and faster man, two attributes that could make a huge difference as well.

Ultimately, what has me leaning toward Mariscal is simple volume. He throws more strikes and does so in combination, whereas we’ve seen Jackson’s output fade late (against Billy Quarantillo, for example). In a close fight where neither man can outright dominate on the floor, volume is very often the deciding factor.

Prediction: Mariscal def. Jackson by decision

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 95 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 95 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ preliminary card matchups, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN/ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 95 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here and here. For the updated and finalized “Tybura vs. Spivac 2” fight card and ESPN/ESPN+ lineup click here.

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

Francis Ngannou’s head coach Eric Nicksick knew the former UFC heavyweight champion would someday return to MMA despite the lucrative opportunities in boxing.

PFL recently announced Ngannou’s promotional debut — and first MMA fight since defending the UFC heavyweight title against Ciryl Gane in January 2022 — takes place Oct. 19 at PFL’s superfight pay-per-view event against Renan Ferreira in a five-round main event.

Following big-money boxing matches against Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua, as well as unfortunate death of Ngannou’s son Kobe, Nicksick felt the stars aligned for a return to the sport that put him on the map as MMA’s lineal heavyweight champion.

“I’m excited for him,” Nicksick told MMA Fighting. “Honestly, I think for me as a coach, just trying to get him through the loss of his son was the most important thing, and get him back in the gym, and get him back around the fellas and back to training. With that being said, that process, I think, has led him to feel comfortable in taking this fight, getting back in the cage, and then doing his PFL obligations.

“So first and foremost, man, I think he was just getting through that hard part and that hard stretch, which I don’t think he’s necessarily through. I think he’s just being able to occupy his mind and his time with MMA, and thankfully, he’s willing [and] wanting to come back and fight.”

Ngannou returns to MMA for the first time since making the decision to leave UFC as heavyweight champion at the beginning of 2023, which led to him signing a big free agent deal with PFL. After switching promotions, Ngannou dropped a split decision in a stunning performance against Fury in boxing before getting knocked out by Joshua.

There are still big-money fights in the squared circle Ngannou could likely get right now, but returning to MMA — and living up to his word as a PFL fighter — meant a lot to Ngannou.

“I didn’t [think his MMA career was done] because of the conversations that we have,” Nicksick said. “I think just because of his competitive nature and the legacy that he wants to leave behind when it comes to MMA, the things that we spoke about, I definitely felt like he was going to come back and fight. Then, there’s just a lot of the freedoms that PFL has given him, I think that he really enjoys and wants to help build this promotion.

“So if he’s the bell cow when it comes to PFL, I think he kind of wants to carry that role and help make this organization better. I really think that he’s fallen in love with MMA in a way when we were fighting Ciryl Gane before the knee injury, that he was just scratching the surface of his actual athletic potential when it comes to MMA. That’s something he’s told me in the past. So knowing the competitor that he is, I [always felt] he’s definitely going to fight again in MMA.”

Ferreira gets the biggest fight of his career coming off a quick knockout of former two-division Bellator champion Ryan Bader at PFL vs. Bellator in February. “Problema” enters the bout with four straight finishes, totaling just over 10 minutes of combined action.

What Ferreira carries in size and stature, he lacks in high-level competition and big-fight experience compared to Ngannou. While Nicksick is certainly aware of that massive advantage, it doesn’t mean they can overlook somebody as dangerous as Ferreira.

“Confidence in this sport is something that can take you over the top more than skill at times,” Nicksick said of Ferreira. “Just believing in your skill set and winning the way that he has been winning, reeling off some good wins, heading into a Francis Ngannou fight, I think that Renan has this confidence that he can beat anybody — and he should. He’s very good and he’s a guy that Francis and I have been watching even before he was in the PFL, like, ‘Oh man, this guy is good.’

“So I think just keeping Francis focused on the task at hand [is key], and understanding this guy is dangerous everywhere, but I feel like we have the ability to kind of neutralize some of those things that he does well, and go out and make it a short night.”

If Ngannou continues his path of destruction in MMA, the options will be aplenty for “The Predator.” Is it boxing, MMA, or perhaps, rising combat sports promoter Turki Alalshikh pulling a magic rabbit of his hat?

“Because of the freedoms that he has, he can always revisit boxing if there’s a name that pops up,” Nicksick said. “That’s the best part about the situation that he’s in — he’s a contractor. He goes out to the highest bidder. He can decide what he wants to do whenever he wants to do it.

“We have our sights on Oct. 19. Whatever position or whatever situation arises by that time — hell, you never know, Turki might come in and get UFC to get him to fight Jon Jones. You never freaking know with this sport what comes about. All options are on the table, man. We’ll figure that out once we handle this business Oct. 19.”

MMA Fighting – All Posts

UFC’s Revenue exceeded expectations after UFC 300 and 303 outpaced expectations. The TKO Group Holdings stock surged in combination with WWE’s WrestleMania 40.

UFC’s Revenue and TKO Group Holdings

With site fees, sponsorships, and live events, the UFC’s revenue climbed to $ 394 million, an increase of nearly thirty percent, during the quarter. MMA Journalist John S. Nash reported on X, formerly Twitter:

Halfway through the year and UFC revenues are up in every revenue category but consumer products. Revenues for 1st 6 months is $ 707.4m and adjusted EBITDA is $ $ 427m, a modest 60% margin.

TKO Group Holdings leader Ariel Emanuel said:

“TKO generated strong financial results in the quarter, highlighted by record quarterly revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. In light of this continued momentum, we are raising our full year 2024 guidance for the second quarter in a row. The strength in our underlying business continues to give us great conviction in TKO’s ability to deliver sustainable long-term value for shareholders.” [Ht MMAMania]

The stock TKO Group Holdings is a combination of the UFC and WWE, with Endeavor owning a piece of both the UFC and WWE. For the quarter, reported by Variety, TKO’s total revenue was $ 851 million with a net income of $ 150 million and adjusted EBITDA of $ 420 million. TKO bumped up its 2024 revenue target by about $ 60 million to somewhere between $ 2.67 billion and $ 2.74 billion.

This is the most successful period in the organization’s history. TKO Group Holdings success was largely driven by the blockbuster UFC 300, UFC 303, and WrestleMania 40. Overall, it means the UFC is having a great year and breaking records. This is the highest revenue the company has put together.

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

Middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis puts his title on the line for the first time at UFC 305 in Perth, Australia against former two-time titleholder Israel Adesanya.  Du Plessis plans to win that fight and move on to the next opponent.  

Du Plessis captured the title by defeating Sean Strickland via split decision at UFC 294 in January, and Strickland has been calling for a rematch since the judges’ scorecards were read by Bruce Buffer.  But Du Plessis thinks Strickland will have to ‘wait a while’ before he fights for the title again.  

“The winner of Khamzat [Chimaev] and Robert Whittaker is going to get the title shot.  That’s going to happen,” Du Plessis told SHAK MMA.  “Strickland says he’s going to wait until he gets a title shot.  He’s going to wait for quite a while.  In my opinion, he’s going to wait for a while.” 

Du Plessis doesn’t really care who he faces after Adesanya, assuming he defeats “The Last Stylebender” on Aug. 18th.  Whittaker and Strickland both have solid cases to be next in line, but Du Plessis believes the fight promotion wants Chimaev to fight for the championship if it had its choice.   

“If Whittaker beats Khamzat, a three-fight win streak, he’s 100-percent getting the title shot. The UFC has been wanting to give Khamzat a title shot since his debut,” Du Plessis said. “Maybe if it’s a draw, and Khamzat will still get the title shot in my opinion.” 

“For me, it’s about the fight the fans want to see; which one is going to be the biggest fight; which fight is the one the fans think is going to be the best fight?  I want to fight the best guy in the world every single time,” Du Plessis continued.  “Honestly, it makes no difference to me who steps in there.”  

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

Hardest fight
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