When UFC inks a new broadcast deal sometime in 2025, the owners at TKO Group Holdings may want to send a thank you card to NBA commissioner Adam Silver.
In July, the NBA officially close deals spanning 11 years and $ 77 billion for basketball games to be broadcast on NBC, ESPN/ABC, and Amazon Prime Video for more than a decade starting in 2025. The landmark deals were massive upgrades from the previous broadcast rights deals for the NBA, but also take the league off the market for the next 11 years.
Meanwhile, the NFL — by far the most valuable sports league in the United States — has a deal running through 2033, the college football playoffs are locked up until 2032, and the MLB and NHL don’t have new deals coming until after 2028.
That leaves UFC as the only major sports property coming available for a broadcast rights deal for the next three years, which puts the promotion in pole position to land a huge TV contract after its current deal with ESPN expires in 2025.
“If you look at what else is available, there is not much coming,” NBC Sports president Rick Cordella told The Athletic about the current market for sports broadcast rights deals. “[The NBA] was clearly a big one.”
The same article quoting Cordella mentions several times that UFC is the only truly valuable sports rights package available any time in the near future.
While UFC clearly offers value to whoever bids on its broadcast rights, the organization essentially being the last man standing until at least 2028 sets it up for a huge windfall at the negotiating table.
By all accounts, UFC has enjoyed a close working relationship with ESPN, which also took over pay-per-view broadcasts for the promotion once its initial deal was inked.
That being said, ESPN chairman Jimmy Pitaro has doled out nearly $ 80 billion in broadcast rights deals since taking over the network, and that’s amid a dwindling audience with the network available in 66.5 million homes compared to 100 million back in 2011.
ESPN is attempting to answer that challenge with direct-to-consumer streaming product Venu, an all-in-one sports service that combines networks from ESPN, FOX, and Warner Bros. Discover into one package for $ 42.99 per month. ESPN is also expected to launch its own standalone streaming service in 2025 to help retain viewers no longer buying a full suite of channels from cable, satellite, or other streaming services like YouTube TV.
ESPN is expected to try and retain UFC’s broadcast rights, but how much the network is willing to spend remains to be seen. Aside from UFC, ESPN is largely done spending on any other broadcast rights deals after locking up the NBA for 11 years and $ 28.8 billion.
While ESPN may look like the frontrunner to keep UFC, it’s impossible to know how things will play out.
Amazon Prime Video has suddenly become a major player in the sports broadcast landscape after landing the NFL’s Thursday Night Football package and then paying $ 20 billion over 11 years for the NBA. Amazon also owns rights to NASCAR as well.
Jay Marine, the global head of sports at Amazon Prime Video, told The Athletic that the company is well aware that UFC is the only major sports deal coming up over the next few years. That knowledge undoubtedly played some part in the bidding for the NBA’s rights, with Marine adding that he’s looking forward to a much longer-term partnership with the basketball league, with hopes for a “three-decade, four-decade-plus relationship.”
In May, TKO Group Holdings president Mark Shapiro revealed that UFC was very close to inking a deal to move to Amazon Prime Video before eventually reaching an agreement with ESPN. Shapiro promised that UFC would explore all viable options with this next broadcast deal negotiation, which could easily bring Amazon back into the fold again.
“We will be flexible so we are giving any perspective partner or current partner the best programming for the most ideal windows so that they can grow their base and retain their [subscriptions],” Shapiro said. “Very important.”
A big part of NBC’s willingness to dish out $ 27 billion over the next 11 years for the NBA was building a model where Peacock — the company’s streaming service — could retain viewers year-round rather than just for any single sports league season. Lessening churn (viewers subscribing for a few months and then cancelling) increases Peacock’s overall profitability.
“Our portfolio of sports on Peacock is incredibly robust,” Cordella said. “You add the NBA to it — I’m a sports fan, you are a sports fan, it feels like a must-have. If you are a sports fan worth your salt, you need Peacock. You need NBC.”
That’s also a check mark in UFC’s favor because there is no offseason for combat sports.
One of the biggest advantages UFC maintains over other sports leagues is a year-round model for events, which includes 12 to 14 annual pay-per-views as well as shoulder programming that remains consistent from month to month.
While Amazon benefits from selling subscriptions to Amazon Prime — a service that gives customers free shipping among other perks, along with Prime Video — NBC, ESPN, and other networks have to find ways to keep subscribers tuned in month to month, year to year.
Adding a valuable year-round product like UFC provides that, especially with its embedded, loyal audience that has only grown in recent years. Despite stars like Conor McGregor not fighting since 2021 and others such as Ronda Rousey long retired, UFC continues to back up the Brink’s truck at every event with record-breaking attendance and live gate numbers.
With NBC, Amazon, and ESPN landing the massive deal with the NBA, that leaves companies like Warner Bros. Discovery out in the cold (the company is actually suing the NBA currently over matching rights for the next TV contract).
As much as Warner Bros. Discovery can lean on other sports offerings already under contract like MLB, NHL, as well as NASCAR and college basketball, losing the NBA hurts. The company was ready to spend billions to retain the NBA, and now that money is available for an entity like UFC to swoop in and capture it.
That’s not even considering streaming services like Netflix potentially getting interested in UFC’s broadcast rights after obtaining Christmas Day games from the NFL as well as an unprecedented 10-year deal for WWE’s flagship program Monday Night Raw starting in 2025.
WWE is the other half of TKO Group Holdings alongside UFC — a fact that has to be acknowledged when negotiations on the new TV deal begin next year.
There’s also players like Apple out there with more than $ 67 billion in cash on hand the company could spend to land a marquee product like UFC. Apple has spent money on sports broadcast rights deals in the past, and stealing away UFC could be a huge addition to the lineup.
It’s impossible to know which way UFC is leaning right now with negotiations not expected to begin for a few more months, but after the latest shifts in the sports media landscape, the promotion is now positioned for even more lucrative deal than before.
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