UFC Vegas 100 predictions

by Site Admin ~ November 9th, 2024

UFC Fight Night: Magny v Morales
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Neil Magny is the living embodiment of the “Ah shit here we go again” meme at this point, right?

The UFC’s career leader in welterweight wins (22) makes his 34th walk to the octagon to headline UFC Vegas 100 and as has so often been the case throughout his time with the promotion, he is a massive underdog. Looking to make his name off Magny this Saturday is Carlos Prates, a dangerous knockout artist that can put an exclamation point on his Rookie of the Year campaign if he takes out one of the division’s hardiest competitors.

It’s a fine fight to cap off a card wracked by cancellations and also burdened with slightly higher than usual expectations due to this officially being the UFC APEX’s centennial show (for whatever that’s worth). Just keep in mind the real number that matters is that this is the UFC’s 37th show of 2024, so the lineup was built with that in mind, not with celebrating an arbitrary landmark.

With that said, also on the main card, former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder makes his UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert, Gaston Bolanos welcomes Contender Series signing Cortavious Romious to the roster, Luana Pinheiro and Gillian Robertson jockey for position in the strawweight top-15, and Mansur Abdul-Malik looks to put on a showcase performance against Dusko Todorovic.

What: UFC Vegas 100

Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Nov. 9. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.


(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates

Not to turn this into a No Bets Barred supplemental (never, ever use my picks for gambling purposes, trust me), but one can’t discuss Neil Magny’s recent competitive history without telling the odds. Magny has played spoiler on multiple occasions, including this past January when he won as a 3-to-1 underdog to Mike Malott at UFC 298, but his board has also seen plenty of chalk. Michael Morales, Ian Machado Garry, Gilbert Burns, and Shavkat Rakhmonov were all heavy favorites to defeat Magny and they did.

Carlos Prates’ chances of victory are right up there with those greats as he’s at least a 6-to-1 favorite depending where you get your lines. It’s not surprising, given he’s been a wrecking ball in 2024, finishing all three of his UFC opponents to extend his overall win streak to 10. At 31, Prates doesn’t look like a prospect, he looks like a fighter who could be challenging for UFC gold in 2025.

If you’re curious how Prates fares in five-round fights, the answer is there’s no data for that because he’s never had to fight past Round 3. That fact alone should be enough to give one pause as far as breaking the bank to wager on Prates, as Magny has shown he can shrug off slow starts and outlast his opponents in high-stakes fights. Prates should end this one early. If he doesn’t, don’t be surprised to see Magny rally and turn the tables on Prates in rounds 3, 4, and 5.

In Prates’ favor is that he’s proven to be excellent at conserving his energy. Magny will definitely want to push the pace to test Prates’ cardio, but Prates is not a tactless berserker. His Muay Thai is patient and precise, making it a risky proposition to attempt to walk him down.

Normally when I pick against Magny, it’s due to his suspect submission defense. This time, it’s the deficit in striking that will prove to be his doom. He’s always been solid, but Prates is spectacular, and I’m picking spectacular to win out on this day.

Prates by knockout.

Pick: Prates

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder

This fight should be a grappler’s delight and if that’s the case, it’s kind of a toss-up.

Reinier de Ridder was a star in ONE Championship and beat some good names over there, though I’m hesitant to put his quality of competition over the UFC wins Gerald Meerschaert has faced. Are Aung La N Sang and Vitaly Bigdash leagues better than Bruno Silva and Makhmud Muradov? I’m not sure, but in a way, this was the perfect way for UFC to gauge what they have with their new signing.

Meerschaert has typically fallen short against top-20 opposition, so if de Ridder is the real deal, we’ll find out soon enough. “The Dutch Knight” has only lost to Anatoly Malykhin, a hulking beast of a fighter carving out his own legacy in ONE, and he’s as dangerous on the ground as Meerschaert is. Hold for hold, de Ridder might even have the edge on Meerschaert, who trails only Jim Miller and Charles Oliveira for the most submission wins in UFC history.

I feel confident picking de Ridder to make Meerschaert tap because I do place him in that range of fighters that have typically foiled “GM3.” Whether he’s truly an elite 185er remains to be seen, but his debut should go fine.

Pick: De Ridder

Gaston Bolanos vs. Cortavious Romious

All things considered, it’s not the worst thing that Gaston Bolanos and Cortavious Romious ended up with a main card spot.

No, this wasn’t what the UFC planned, but they’re rolling with the punches here and rolling the dice on a potential bantamweight thriller. The 135-pound division is the gift that keeps on giving, so you can’t go wrong keeping the spotlight on it.

This is somewhat of a striker vs. grappler matchup and while I favor Romious for his potential to mix in wrestling, that doesn’t mean it will necessarily become a boring grind. Romious brings impressive physicality and an offensive mindset to the octagon, which should bring the best out of Bolanos. “The Dreamkiller” will undoubtedly be hunting for a knockout from the moment the bell rings, so seeing if Romious can defuse his potent striking should make for compelling viewing.

I have Romious scoring key takedowns and racking up the points with ground-and-pound, wearing Bolanos down en route to a dominant third round and a convincing win on the scorecards.

Pick: Romious

Luana Pinheiro (15) vs. Gillian Robertson (14)

Has Luana Pinheiro hit a wall? After a promising 3-0 start to her UFC career, the Brazilian strawweight went up a couple of notches in competition and stumbled against Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill. She’s still showing limitations in the striking department, which proved to be her undoing in her past two outings. When the standup doesn’t go her way, she reverts to her grappling, and the results can be uneven.

She has a willing jiu-jitsu partner in Gillian Robertson. “The Savage” is always looking to fight on the ground and the Pinheiro pairing could result in some entertaining scrambles and a few hairy submission situations for both fighters. I can’t lie, I’m enamored with Robertson’s aggression, so I have to lean in her direction. No Canadian bias, I swear!

Pinheiro has the talent and motivation to right the ship, but Robertson’s offense will be too much in the end.

Robertson by ground-and-pound TKO.

Pick: Robertson

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dusko Todorovic

Let’s be clear, Dusko Todorovic’s considerable experience advantage should be a factor here. Unfortunately for Todorovic, a lot of his UFC experience has featured him losing in painful ways. Fresh off a knee injury that sidelined him for over 600 days, Todorovic could look like a new man on Saturday. Or it could be more of the same.

If the buzz around Mansur Abdul-Malik tells us anything, it’s that the matchmakers will probably be more than happy to see a new name shine in the main card opener. There’s nothing fancy about Abdul-Malik’s approach, which makes sense given he’s only been competing for a little over three years and enters his seventh pro bout. He’ll come out throwing heavy punches and head kicks, determined to earn a bonus in his first UFC fight.

Truthfully, this has upset special written all over it. Let’s not forget Todorovic was once the promising prospect that received a rude awakening when that UFC call came, so maybe it’s his turn to deliver a reality check?

Nah, Abdul-Malik is going to knock him out.

Pick: Abdul-Malik

Preliminaries

Denise Gomes def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Elizeu Zaleski def. Zach Scroggin

Charlie Radtke def. Matthew Semelsberger

Da’Mon Blackshear def. Cody Stamann

Antonio Trocoli def. Tresean Gore

Melissa Mullins def. Klaudia Sygula

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Charles Oliveira will join fans in watching Islam Makhachev’s anticipated title defense against Arman Tsarukyan. The bout is expected to showcase the lightweight champion Makhachev facing the rising contender at UFC 311 on January 18, though the UFC has not yet officially confirmed the fight.

Oliveira is familiar with both fighters, having suffered losses to each. He lost to Tsarukyan by decision at UFC 300 after previously falling to Makhachev by submission in their title fight at UFC 280. Speaking to New York Post Sports, Oliveira shared that, if the fight is finalized, he would lean toward Makhachev as the likely victor.

“They have very similar styles, and I think each has to watch for the same things,” Oliveira said. “They need to be cautious with the striking, as both have some striking ability, but they also need to be very mindful of each other’s ground game.”

He continued, “It’s a very close matchup style-wise, but I think Islam has a slight edge over Arman. He’s just a bit stronger. But when it comes down to it, either of them could come out on top.”

Oliveira is set to face Michael Chandler next Saturday in the co-main event of UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Continue Reading Charles Oliveira: Islam Makhachev is ‘A Little Step Ahead’ Of Arman Tsarukyan at MMA News.

MMA News

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

Your daily UFC trivia game, Saturday edition

by Site Admin ~ November 9th, 2024

Think you can figure out which UFC fighter we’re talking about? You’ll get five clues to figure him out.

We’re back for another day of the SB Nation UFC in-5 daily trivia game, and we’re switching to a system of a new article each day for the game.

We tried using a single article for the game, updated with the latest game each day, but it was creating a bit of an unwieldy experience in the comments. So, we’ll have the current day’s game plus the previous three days in each new article. That way, you can catch up if you miss a day.

Game instructions are at the bottom if you’re new to the game!

What we need from you

  1. Play the game
  2. Share your result in the comments and on social media
  3. Provide feedback (Google Form or in comments below)

Today’s UFC in-5 game

Friday’s UFC in-5 game

Thursday’s UFC in-5 game

Wednesday’s UFC in-5 game

The goal of the game is to guess the correct random UFC fighter player with the help of up to five clues. We’ll mix in BOTH ACTIVE AND RETIRED FIGHTERS. It won’t be easy to figure it out in one or two guesses, but some of you might be able to nail it. It will be a mix of well-known players and some “that guys” that we haven’t thought of in some time. The game will appear in slot #3 of the MMA Fighting layout each morning, with occasional movement later in the day.

After you correctly guess the player, you can click “Share Results” to share how you did down in the comments and on social media.

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts


ONE Championship

Following an unexpected 18-month layoff, former ONE flyweight champion Adriano Moraes is finally ready to make his return to action with a fight booked against Danny Kingad on Friday at ONE 169.

The long absence followed a trilogy of fights against Demetrious Johnson where Moraes became the first person in history to finish the former UFC champion before falling in their next two encounters. Johnson actually sat on his final win over Moraes for over a year before finally announcing his retirement from the sport in September.

While they may have been professional rivals in the cage, Moraes had nothing but praise for Johnson when addressing his former foe after he called it a career.

“I was happy for him,” Moraes told MMA Fighting. “I think he achieved a lot of things in his career. I think for him it was great to stop at the top of the division, at the top of his career. I think for him, he did everything he could to be one of the greatest of all time and he had a really great career. I think he wanted to stop on top of his career.

“He was the guy who opened the division for all of us flyweight fighters in this division. I remember I was a big fan of him for sure, I followed his career from the beginning. So for me to have this trilogy against him was amazing. To be part of his legacy and him to be part of my legacy. For me, it was one of the best things to ever happen. To be the first man to finish him for me, for my legacy, it’s really great.”

As much as Moraes wishes Johnson well in whatever he does next, the Brazilian isn’t totally convinced that “Mighty Mouse” won’t get that itch to compete again.

In a sport where it seems like nobody ever stays retired, Moraes can’t help but wonder if perhaps Johnson might eventually decide to come back for another fight.

“For me, it doesn’t matter [if we fight again],” Moraes said. “I just have to focus on my way but something tells me he’s going to come back. If I capture the belt again, maybe he can come back and we will have our fourth dance.”

When asked about Moraes’ comments, Johnson actually burst out laughing but not because he was mocking his former opponent.

Instead, Johnson made it clear that he’s resolved in his decision to stay retired and waiting for over a year after his last fight before making that announcement gave him time to see if he got the desire to compete again. By the time he declared that he was hanging up his gloves for good, Johnson knew definitively that he was done and there was no chance he was coming back.

“That was the whole point [about waiting],” Johnson told MMA Fighting. “Obviously everybody has so many different things going on in their life. I know Donald Cerrone … he’s done movies, he’s got his ranch, he’s got his children, he does scuba diving, he does so [many] things in his life that keep him busy. So maybe he wants to come back to get that 50 fights in the UFC.

“For me, mixed martial arts, competing, I get enjoyment out of doing it in jiu-jitsu and going into IBJJF and doing that stuff. So for me, I just don’t see a point to coming back.”

For now it doesn’t really matter if Johnson ever fights again because he’s not active and he already relinquished the ONE flyweight title on his way out the door.

In a perfect world, Moraes would be fighting for that belt on Friday but unfortunately that just wasn’t in the plans for ONE Championship just yet.

“I don’t know [why this fight isn’t for the title] but it’s not depending on me,” Moraes said. “It’s depending on the boss of the house.

“As an athlete, I have to train and prepare and fight everything they call me. I already defended my belt years ago against Danny Kingad. I think the belt should be on the line for sure but let’s see [what happens].”

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Retirement
| BJPenn.com

Midnight Mania: The $6 Million Man

by Site Admin ~ November 9th, 2024

UFC 227 Dillashaw v Garbrandt 2

Bringing you the weird and wild from the world of MMA each and every weeknight!

Welcome to Midnight Mania!

It’s been a rough week for Cody Garbrandt. Just a few days removed from his co-main event slot versus Miles Johns at UFC Vegas 100, “No Love” was forced to withdraw with an undisclosed issue. It’s a tough way to end the year, as Garbrandt was aiming to return to the win column after a competitive loss to Deiveson Figueiredo back at UFC 300 (watch here).

There was a time when Garbrandt was on the absolute top of the world. Back in 2015, Garbrandt was an undefeated UFC champion at just 25 years of age. Based on the way he handled Dominick Cruz to capture gold, he looked destined to reign over the Bantamweights for a while. Instead, it was former champion TJ Dillashaw who stopped him in consecutive fights, ending Garbrandt’s time at the top.

On a recent episode of The Casuals MMA, Dillashaw reflected on his rivalry with Garbrandt and also revealed that UFC invested a massive amount of promotion and money into turning “No Love” into the “next Conor McGregor.”

“He had a lot of pressure on him too,” Dillashaw said of Garbrandt. “He had an amazing fight against Cruz. I’ve never seen Cody Garbrandt be that good. His style is perfect for Cruz. He’s by far the fastest human being I’ve ever trained with when it comes to reaction times and how quick he is. He’s got great wrestling, and he’s got power in his hands, so it was a perfect match up for him.

“Coming off that, UFC was like ‘Hey, this is our next big horse, let’s put some money into him.’ So they market the s—t out of him, put him in a bunch of commercials, got some celebrities behind him. From what I was told, they put like $ 6 million into marketing him before our fight, gave us The Ultimate Fighter. So he went to massive stardom — way bigger than me — fast. They wanted him to be the next Conor McGregor, like run your mouth. I wouldn’t say he was the sharpest tool in the shed to be able to do something like that, so he just like said s—t, and he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.”

Whenever Garbrandt does return, he’ll on the final fight of his current UFC contract. Garbrandt is still just 33 years of age, so it’ll be very interesting to see whether or not UFC continues invest in “No Love.”

Insomnia

Did Caio Machado probably deserve the nod against Brendson Ribeiro? Sure. Are either good enough to be UFC fighters? Absolutely not.

I don’t love hearing about fighters and neck surgeries. All the best to Roosevelt Roberts in recovery!

Bo Nickal vs. Shara Magomedov sounds very goofy, and I’m here for that.

Marlon Vera’s excellent cardio has a simple explanation: road work!

It’s rare that an excuse (for a win no less) is revealed five years later.

We need more big MMA fighters doing strongman stuff like bending frying pans.

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Petr Yan showing off his footwork:

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Think Gable Steveson actually makes the switch?

Slips, rips, and KO clips

UFC Vegas 100 being a complete disaster is only appropriate, but take a moment to remember better times.

A good example of sitting up into the arm-in guillotine:

Body shots on a wounded opponent are almost always a good idea.

Random Land

Pastry is life.

Midnight Music: I love three versions of this song. Here’s the least known one:

Sleep well Maniacs! More martial arts madness is always on the way.

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts


Reug Reug

Reug Reug is finally a champion.

On Friday night at Lumpinee Boxing Stadium in Bangkok, Thailand, Reug Reug — real name Oumar Kane — claimed the ONE heavyweight title with a narrow split decision win Anatoly Malykhin in the main event of ONE Championship 169.

A former Senegalese wrestler, Reug Reug’s size proved to be difficult for the three-division ONE champion to deal with as he scored a quick takedown early in the fight. Malykhin worked his way back up to the feet but the two remained grappling against the ropes and Malykhin received a yellow card for repeatedly reaching through the ropes.

As the fight progressed, Malykhin began to land big shots on the feet but simply couldn’t crack the chin of his massive opponent, and was himself dropped in the final round of the bout. Still, the bout seemed to favor Malykhin for sheer activity however, two of the judges scored the fight for Reug Reug, delivering Malykhin his first career loss.

In the co-main event, Rodtang Jitmuangnon scored a unanimous decision win over Jacob Smith. This was supposed to be a title defense of Rodtang’s ONE flyweight Muay Thai title, however he failed to make weight and was thus stripped of the title. Nevertheless, Rodtang delivered a vintage performance, outclassing Smith and slicing him open with a nasty elbow over the eye.

In a featured bout of the evening, Jackie Buntan defeated Anissa Meksen to claim the inaugural ONE women’s flyweight kickboxing title. The two women battled back-and-forth for the full 15 minutes but ultimately the judges favored Buntan’s more decisive moments.

In one of the featured fights of the evening, Adriano Moraes got back in the win column with a second-round guillotine finish over Danny Kingad. It was the former flyweight champion’s first fight since losing his trilogy matchup with Demetrious Johnson, and may set him up to fight for the vacant title next.

Also of note on the card, Kade Ruotolo scored the second win of his MMA career with a first-round submission after dropping opponent Ahmed Mujtba early, and multiple-time world champion BJJ competitor Carlos Buchecha submitted Amir Aliakbari in the first round as well.

Check out those highlights as well as the full results below.

ONE 169 full results.

Reug Reug def. Anatoly Malykhin via split decision

Rodtang Jitmuangnon def. Jacob Smith (Muay Thai) via unanimous decision

Jackie Buntan def. Anissa Meksen (kickboxing) via unanimous decision

Adriano Moraes def. Danny Kingad via submission (rear-naked choke) — R2, 4:14

Kongthoranee Sor Sommai def. Tagir Khalilov (Muay Thai) via unanimous decision

Kade Ruotolo def. Ahmed Mujtba via submission (D’Arce choke) — R1. 1:04

Sam-A Gaiyanghadao def. Zhang Peimian via unanimous decision

Marcus Buchecha def. Amir Aliakbari via submission (rear-naked choke) — R1, 3:15

Mohamed Younes Rabah def. Eddie Abasolo (Muay Thai) via unanimous decision

Ayaka Miura def. Macarena Aragon via scarfhold americana — R1, 2:22

Aliff Sor Dechapan def. Walter Goncalves (Muay Thai) via unanimous decision

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