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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight grapplers Caio Borralho and Paul Craig will throw down this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301

No. 14-ranked Caio Borralho has separated himself from the 185-pound pack for a very simple reason: he’s quite good, and most Middleweights are not. He may not always be a thrilling watch, but Borralho has a well-rounded skill set, great conditioning, and the ability to actually follow a game plan.

Craig makes for the perfect foil, because he is bad by several objective metrics. Of course, that hasn’t stopped him from defeating former and future champions like Jamahal Hill and Mauricio Rua! Craig is uniquely dangerous, and he can never be truly counted out of a fight despite his obvious flaws.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig Betting Odds

• Caio Borralho victory: -540
• Caio Borralho via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Caio Borralho via submission: TBD
• Caio Borralho via decision: TBD
• Paul Craig victory: +340
• Paul Craig via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Paul Craig via submission: TBD
• Paul Craig via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Pedro Vilela/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Borralho Wins

Caio Borralho is a smart and tactical fighter. He uses a karate-style stance and movement to maintain distance, scoring kicks and occasional counter punches. Most of the time, he’s waiting for a moment to time his athletic double leg, and he’s a black belt on the floor.

There’s a clear reason that Borralho is such a significant favorite: he’s just better. He’s the sharper kickboxer by a clear margin, the superior wrestler, and Borralho’s jiu-jitsu is very good in its own right. He has the skill to grapple with Craig and avoid the triangle, particularly since everyone knows that’s Craig’s ace in the hole.

In his last bout, Borralho let Abus Magomedov tire himself out a bit then really upped the pressure and volume in the second. A similar game plan seems wise here, in that Borralho can slowly beat up Craig then turn up the aggression as Craig starts to feel the punishment. Borralho needs finishes to climb the ladder quickly and shed his boring reputation — this is a good opponent for those goals.

Photo by George Tewkesbury/PA Images via Getty Images

How Craig Wins

I say this with love: Paul Craig is one of the wonkiest fighters on the roster. His kickboxing game is inconsistent, his defense isn’t great, he always falls to his knees when shooting double leg takedowns — yet he has a genuinely great resume and has worked into the Top 10 in two separate divisions.

Scottish magic, perhaps? Craig doesn’t quit, and he’ll turn a small opening into a broken arm real quick.

Match ups never look good for Craig on paper, but this isn’t an impossible fight for him. Borralho is not a fearsome puncher, so Craig can feel more comfortable in advancing behind combinations and kicks. We haven’t really seen Borralho’s takedown defense tested, so perhaps Craig can indeed muscle him to the floor.

If not, Craig hits reasonably hard. At worst, his aggression probably draws a takedown from Borralho, which at least gets Craig to the floor where he wants to be.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Borralho vs. Craig Prediction

My prediction is probably fairly obvious at this point.

Barring a sudden Craig triangle choke — always possible! — Borralho should win this fight everywhere. He’s younger, better, and on the rise. He has the skills and smarts to keep himself out of trouble while still delivering an ass-kicking. Much like Brendan Allen did in Craig’s last fight, Borralho should be able to beat his opponent up wherever the fight goes, and the threat of the submission subsides after a certain amount of punches land.

The Brazilian should mind his P’s and Q’s, but this is a stylistic layup.

Prediction: Borralho victory (-540)

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

In his first fight since The Ultimate Fighter, Hunter Azure scored a monster knockout and took home a brand new belt.

Saturday evening, Azure faced off with Amun Cosme for the United Fight League bantamweight title at UFL 4 in Chandler, AZ. In the second round, the Fight Ready product scored the most impressive highlight of his career, leveling Cosme with a devastating right hand.

Check out the highlight below.

Still only 32 years old, Azure already boasts a plenty of high level experience, entering the UFC in 2019 off of the Contender Series. He had a rough run of things in the promotion, going 2-2 before moving back to the regional circuit. He then joined season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter, but got bounced in his first fight and was not offered a contract back in the UFC. But with performances like the one he had on Saturday, it may not be long before he’s back in the octagon.

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Booked to return at UFC 302 at the beginning of June, undisputed lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev claims he has the “keys” to turn in an easy victory over incoming foe, former interim gold holder, Dustin Poirier in New Jersey. 

Makhachev, the current undisputed lightweight champion and pound-for-pound ranked fighter on the promotion’s banner, is slated to make his first outing inside the Octagon this summer at UFC 302 in Newark, taking on Poirier in a summer comeback. 

Sidelined since last October, Makhachev most recently retained his lightweight crown with a stunning first round high-kick and strikes knockout win over then-featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski in the pair’s short-notice rematch clash.

As for Poirier, the former interim titleholder co-headlined UFC 299 back in March, rallying to turn in an emphatic second round knockout win over emerging French contender, Benoit Saint Denis – denying the Nimes native another consecutive victory. 

Islam Makhachev expects easy fight with Dustin Poirier

And booking a fight with the Lafayette native in his return to active competition, Makhachev – who is reportedly gearing up for both a rematch with Arman Tsarukyan and a projected welterweight move later this year, expects an “easy” bout with Poirier at UFC 302.

“Dustin (Poirier) is a legend – he has more experience than anybody in this sport,” Islam Makhachev told TMZ Sports. “But his problem is his style, just one problem this guy have. His weak point is wrestling and the grappling. And I just – I have the key for the easy fight, I think if I follow the plan, I can beat him easy.”

“My style and Khabib (Nurmagomedov’s) style is worst style for Dustin,” Islam Makhachev explained. “People who can take him down and hold him there, always give him problems. And I’m not underestimating Poirier, because you know, this guy’s a legend, he can beat everybody. …Dustin, be ready – and wrestle a lot. I defend my neck, I’m ready for your guillotine, that’s why it’s not happening in our fight.”

Do you think Islam Makhachev is overlooking Dustin Poirier?

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

On a weekend with plenty of violence, Dennis Fränberg may have stolen the show in his first professional fight.

Saturday evening at AFN 6 in Solna, Sweden, Fränberg made his professional debut against fellow debutant Josef Al-Zubeidy, and Fränberg got his career off to a perfect start by delivering a thunderous right hand that face-planted Al-Zubeidy in almost comical fashion.

Check out the nasty knockout below.

Though this was Fränberg’s professional debut, he has a number of amateur bouts to his name, amassing a 3-5 record since starting MMA in 2020.

Al-Zubeidy has several amateur fights to his name as well, with only a 1-3 record.

The two were previously scheduled to face each other in an amateur contest in 2023, but that fight fell through. Instead, they made their professional debuts on Saturday, and now Al-Zubeidy could be rethinking his decision to turn pro.

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

Paddy Pimblett is ready to return, and he has plenty of options ahead of him.

Two fighters in particular have caught Pimblett’s attention after scoring big victories at UFC 300. Bobby Green won a decision over Jim Miller and then called for a fight with “The Baddy,” then longtime Pimblett rival Renato Moicano did the same after submitting Jalin Turner.

Pimblett responded to the callouts in a YouTube video, starting with Green.

“As you know, UFC 300, everybody wants a slice of ‘The Baddy,’” Pimblett said. “Bobby Green screamed my name on the mic after it. Didn’t surprise me, know what I mean? He might be ranked, but he’s got no followers and he needs me. Just like everyone else, they want to fight me because they know I’m the boy. Bobby Green’s an option. If Bobby Green wants to fight, I’m there.”

Green, a veteran of 49 pro bouts, has won three of his past four fights and currently holds the No. 15 spot in the UFC’s official lightweight rankings. It’s a spot that Pimblett wants, but he has other plans in mind, especially if he can convince Moicano to spend a few months with him filming a season of The Ultimate Fighter.

“I’d rather fight my boy, Moicano,” Pimblett said. “Where you at, Renato? I don’t even dislike Renato Moicano. I actually like him. He’s a funny guy. He’s a cool dude. So me and him having a fight would be hilarious. The buildup to that fight would be very, very funny. I think it’d be even funnier if me and him done a season of The Ultimate Fighter.

“That’d be six, seven, eight weeks of pure comedy for the fans. So I would — I’d love that, to be honest. And I’d rather go right in at rank 10 rather than beating rank 15.

Unsurprisingly, Pimblett is targeting a fight on the upcoming card in Manchester, England, on July 27. The Liverpool native is coming off of a unanimous decision win over Tony Ferguson, a result that improved his UFC record to 5-0.

With that legendary name behind him, he’s strictly aiming to move up the ranks now.

“But, next for me is someone, obviously, hopefully it’s someone in the top 15,” Pimblett said. “I don’t want to fight down. I want to be trying to fight up, I want to try and get ranked.”

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