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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

After back-to-back weekends in the APEX, the UFC hits the road on Saturday for UFC Atlantic City, which is headlined by a women’s flyweight bout between Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot. Given the state of the flyweight division, this seems like a surefire title eliminator bout, so who will leave Saturday night next in line for the throne, and how can you profit? Let’s get to it.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Photo by Suhaimi Abdullah/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Straight Bets

Erin Blanchfield (-192)

I’ve made my thoughts about Blanchfield no secret on the various MMA Fighting videos and podcasts: She’s the best female fighter alive today. Blanchfield is a nightmare to deal with on the ground, and her athleticism, pace, and durability make her nearly impossible to beat over 25 minutes. Her weakest area remains her striking, but she’s more than willing to throw down, and she’s tough enough that she can win that phase of the game through will power. The worst part for other flyweights is she’s only 24 years old; she is just scratching the surface of her peak form, and that’s bad news for everyone else.

That said, I have a lot of respect for Manon Fiorot. She’s big and athletic and a good striker, if not a particularly threatening one. I’ve compared her to athletic Katlyn Chookagian before, and I stand by that. She’s also a good defensive wrestler, which means she is going to be able to test Blanchfield. But since she lacks big power in her striking, I expect “Cold Blooded” to walk through the fire and take over as the fight heads into the later rounds.

Vicente Luque (-112)

Luque is only 32 years old, but he somehow seems ancient. Some of that comes from being around for so long. But it’s also from the fact that he’s taken a lot of damage over the course of his career (the man has four “Fight of the Night” bonuses for a reason). But in his most recent outing against Rafael dos Anjos, he got away from his reckless, brawler style and leaned on his grappling advantage. He should be able to do the same against Joaquin Buckley, who is a powerful fighter but tends to fade down the stretch.

Buckley has looked good since dropping back down to welterweight, but Luque is a big step up, and I think the young-but-old dog still has enough tread on the tires to get this done.

Ibo Aslan (-130)

I’ve been betting all of my favorite prospects from the most recent season of Contender Series this year, and thus far, it’s been working out. Combined, the “Big Paws On A Puppy” tier is 6-0 since joining the UFC, and with Aslan slotting into that group, this is an easy bet for me. Some of you might be thinking, wait, didn’t Aslan lose to Anton Turkalj a few years ago? Sure did. But they were both 23 years old then. Aslan has improved leaps and bounds since then, and I think “The Pleasure Man” is in for a rough evening.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Prop Bets

Loopy Godinez To Win By Decision (-135)

In one of the best fights on the entire card, Godinez faces Virna Jandiroba in a bout that has outside implications for the 115-pound title. And fortunately for Godinez, she’s got a good chance to win it.

Godinez is all pressure, pace, and volume, and that lines up well against Jandiroba, who is an elite grappler but not the best wrestler. On the feet, she should simply out-work Jandiroba, and given how strong of a defensive wrestler she is, it’s unlikely she’ll be taken down consistently. Given that a finish is highly unlikely (Jandiroba has never been stopped, and nine of Godinez’s 12 career wins came on the cards), this prop bet is the right play.

Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

Long Shot of the Week

Chris Weidman To Win By Submission (+650)

Yes, Weidman is 39 years old. Yes, he’s lost seven of his past nine fights. Yes, he suffered a catastrophic leg injury that forever changed him and his career. All of these things are undoubtedly true.

But what if?

Even factoring in all of the above facts, Bruno Silva is not a world beater. He’s 1-4 in his past five bouts, and seven of his 10 career losses have come by submission. Before he became famous for knocking out Anderson Silva, Weidman was an NCAA All-American wrestler and a damn good submission grappler. Add to that, Weidman is undefeated against fighters named Silva – and undefeated in New Jersey.

Everything is lining up Weidman on Saturday.

Wrap Up

While last week’s APEX card may not have been great, it was at least a winning week. Now that we’re out and into a real venue, let’s hope we bring the good luck with us. No parlay this week, as I only had a few bets I really liked, so let’s hope the straight action does us well.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

All information in this article is provided to readers of MMA Fighting for entertainment, news, and amusement purposes only. It is the responsibility of the reader to learn and abide by online gambling laws in their region before placing any online sports betting wagers.

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With the UFC Atlantic City early (and official) weigh ins already in the books, the promotion will send all 28 fighters back to the scale for the ceremonial festivities, popping off LIVE at 4 p.m. ET in the embedded video above. This marks the final stop before the “Blanchfield vs. Fiorot” MMA event on ESPN and ESPN+ tomorrow night (Sat., March 30, 2024) at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Get complete UFC Atlantic City early weigh-in results and video right here.

“To be honest, I thought it would be different,” Fiorot said through a translator in her interview with UFC.com. “Of course, I was looking for the title shot, but life is life. Things went the way it went, and now there is a [Grasso vs. Shevchenko] trilogy and all of the things that happen in this field. I’m happy in the meanwhile to be able to grab this fight.”

“I don’t think it will go to the end because that’s not my goal and that’s not what I aim for,” she said. “If it’s necessary, I’ve got good cardio. I know how to resist in long training sessions, long fights, long everything. I’m prepared. No problem. I think it’s a good matchup. It will be an interesting fight and we all know where people see us, and I’m also well prepared for that. I think it could be great.”

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Atlantic City fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN/ESPN+ main card start time at 10 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Atlantic City news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here and here. For the updated and finalized “Blanchfield vs. Fiorot” fight card and ESPN/ESPN+ line up click here.

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MMA: Mixed Martial Arts

Chris Weidman did everything possible to ensure he was ready to return at full strength after suffering a gruesome broken leg in 2021, which included a compound fracture.

More than two years and four surgeries later, the former UFC middleweight champion felt like he was back to his old self, but it wasn’t until he set foot in the octagon this past August that a harsh realization set in. Despite all his preparation, training, and rehabilitation, Weidman couldn’t account for what unfolded once he actually started trading strikes with Brad Tavares.

“There were some surprises in there for sure,” Weidman told MMA Fighting. “We weren’t worried about leg kicks at all, which is stupid as hell. You come off breaking your leg in half and you’re not worried about leg kicks? I get it. Coaches and us, I never really struggled with leg kicks before in fights, and we just didn’t think it was a real issue that I had to worry about. So when I got in there, I was more thinking that he was going to try to come to brawl, move around, and then really look to get inside the pocket with boxing, and that’s when I would try to go into my takedowns.

“I was thinking I was keeping the range with Tavares, front kicks, me kicking more from the outside. He comes inside, instead of me exchanging in these punching exchanges from the inside with boxing, I was going to be looking for takedowns.”

The leg kicks from Tavares were bad enough, but then Weidman was unable to pull the trigger and fire back at him, which he knew was a key element to stave off the attacks and also get past his own mental blocks fighting for the first time after such a devastating injury.

To make matters worse, Weidman suffered a hairline fracture on the opposite leg to the one that was previously broken, and that pretty much doomed him.

“I was surprised I was so hesitant to throw my right leg,” Weidman said. “Because usually when you’re getting kicked, you’ve got to kick back. My brain wouldn’t let my body just throw that damn kick. I actually tried. I tried so hard to throw it in the second round and it was like I babied it, I didn’t go all out. That was a tough one to get over.

“By the time I tried taking him down, my other leg was already broken, my good leg, because he fractured it, gave me a hairline fracture on my leg,” Weidman said. “Probably in the first round or the beginning of the second, it’s hard to really tell when my leg went out, but either way my legs were not underneath me anymore. … Before you know it, by the second round, when I felt good, I had to fight southpaw and I had no drive behind me to get the takedowns. I was really compromised. I don’t think I fought a bad fight. I thought he fought a really smart, strategic fight and it kind of caught me off guard.”

Having gone through that experience, Weidman offers the same advice he now tells himself to anybody coming back from a similar injury — something former two-division UFC champion Conor McGregor will attempt to do when he fights again.

There are only a handful of fighters who have ever experienced a severely broken leg in competition, which is why Weidman knows McGregor already took some helpful lessons away from Weidman’s last outing. Watching want went wrong for Weidman probably serves as the best possible cautionary tale to ensure the same thing doesn’t happen to McGregor.

“I know he watched my fight,” Weidman said of McGregor. “I think he probably learned a lot watching my fight. Some of the red flags of what to be prepared for, for whoever he fights, and also maybe you’re not going to be able to throw [the kicks] back as much as you want. Or now, be prepared that could be something you have to deal with, so really train on kicking back.

“Because you want that to be second nature when you’re in there. For me, I thought I was good with that, but I wasn’t. I would have really worked at it more and realize there is a psychological effect when you break your leg in half like that. So you need to really get that habit back strong and focus on that. I don’t really think I need to say much. He should just watch my last fight and learn from that.”

With his next fight booked against Bruno Silva at UFC Atlantic City on Saturday, Weidman took a different approach to his preparation this time, as well as the strategy he’s developing with his coaches.

Of course, Silva isn’t Tavares, so there’s no telling for certain if the Brazilian will even employ leg kicks as a major part of his arsenal. But Weidman promises he’s ready for whatever gets thrown at him this time.

“I am very ready for someone to do that again to me,” Weidman said. “I will not be fooled twice. In this fight, I do expect Bruno Silva to try and take out my legs. He’s got powerful punches and kind of swings unorthodox-ly, but I will be prepared for leg kicks big time. My goal is to be able to kick back. I really thought I was going to be able to kick back in that last fight.

“I’ve really been working on throwing that back in retaliation for being leg kicked, so hopefully I’ll be able to do that in this next fight.”

Stylistically, Weidman appreciates that Silva is the kind of fighter who comes forward and goes headhunting with his punches. In a perfect world, that would allow Weidman to then counter with his wrestling, which remains arguably the best part of his entire game.

“If he does come at me, it’s a dangerous game for him too, because I will be throwing punches,” Weidman said. “I’ve got heavy hands too. I will be throwing in that pocket, but that will also open up my wrestling game.

“Ultimately that’s where I want to be — on top of him — and that’s where he doesn’t want me. That’s one thing he has to decide. If he’s going to be the Chute Boxer, walking forward, you’ve got to be really careful of takedowns. He’s got a lot on his plate as well.”

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Tom Aspinall is done trying to goad Jon Jones into a fight.

Aspinall, who currently sits as the UFC’s interim heavyweight world champion, has been in limbo ever since his 69-second knockout of Sergei Pavlovich in November to capture the temporary title.

Traditionally, the interim champ would move on to meet the undisputed titleholder — that being Jon Jones — once cleared for a return. Unfortunately, for Aspinall, that does not appear to be the case.

‘Bones’ has remained insistent that he will settle some business with consensus heavyweight GOAT Stipe Miocic before even humoring a potential clash with Aspinall. As a result, the Salford, England native is looking for a fight elsewhere.

Answering questions on his YouTube channel, Tom Aspinall was asked about the possibility of competing in July when the promotion returns to Manchester. He could neither confirm nor deny rumors of his return, but noted that conversations are taking place and moving “in the right direction.”

“I cannot confirm or deny because I will be getting told off if I do either, but I’m hearing strong rumors and I’m in talks right now with the UFC about what’s going to happen, what’s going to be the next step, stuff like that,” Aspinall said. “Nothing that I can announce yet, nothing set in stone yet, but we’re moving in the right direction with it all” (h/t MMA Fighting).

As for who Aspinall would face, Curtis Blaydes appears to be the clear-cut favorite. After all, ‘Razor’ is the only man to own a victory over Aspinall inside the Octagon — though that was the result of an injury Aspinall suffered 15 seconds into their UFC Fight Night headliner in July 2022. Still, Aspinall would love the chance to get that one back and rectify the only blemish on his UFC record.

“I’d like to fight Curtis Blaydes because when I fought him I got injured and that means that technically he wins and I don’t like that,” Aspionall said. “I want to be the winner, not Curtis Blaydes, so all respect to Curtis and everything. Like him, good guy, professionally I owe him a beating, so that’s what I want to do next.”

Blaydes is coming off a massive win against Brazilian submission specialist Jailton Almeida at UFC 299, pounding out a victory with a series of brutal hammer fists in the opening minute of round two.

Tom Aspinall is moving on from Jon Jones

While Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic is an exciting fight on paper — pitting two of MMA’s GOATs against one another — the fight means next to nothing in the grand scheme of things. The biggest matchup that can be made in the heavyweight division right now is Jon Jones vs. Tom Aspinall. And it’s a fight that Aspinall truly believes he can win.

“I’m obviously confident that I could beat Jon Jones because I want to fight him,” Aspinall said. “I’m not making it a secret that I want to fight him. I’ve done everything I can until this point. Do I fear him? Absolutely. I fear all of my opponents. These guys are the best in the world, absolute best in the world. Absolutely I fear him, that fuels me. So I want to prove that I’m the best in the world. I want to fight Jon Jones, obviously, but he doesn’t, so there’s not a lot I can do about that.”

Recently, Aspinall and Jones met up at an event in Birmingham with the interim champ asking for the fight face-to-face. Jones, of course, was non-committal, and based on the undisputed titleholder’s body language during the somewhat awkward interaction, Aspinall would be downright shocked if the two of them ever stepped foot inside the Octagon.

“No, I don’t think Jon wants to fight,” Aspinall said. “Obviously, I want it. I can’t do anymore. I’ve bitched about him, I’ve cried about him, I’ve said good stuff to him, said bad stuff to him, I’ve asked him about fighting to his face, it’s still not going on. I’ve asked the UFC to fight him, it’s still not going on, so I don’t know what else I can do at this point. But I want the fight, obviously.”

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